301
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
S. Lucatello et al. (eds.), Stewardship of Future Drylands and Climate
Change in the Global South, Springer Climate,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22464-6_17
Chapter 17
Vulnerability to the Effects of Climate
Change: Future Aridness and Present
Governance in the Coastal Municipalities
of Mexico
G. Seingier, O. Jiménez-Orocio, and I. Espejel
Abstract We estimated vulnerability to climate change in the coastal municipalities of Mexico through an interdisciplinary approach using an index model with
three components: (1) Exposure to dryness and climate change (Lang’s dryness
index), (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptation capacity. Data input were
national census data and general circulation model outputs (2045–2069 scenario).
Scenarios were compared to reference climatology through Lang’s aridity index,
which was found to be practical as an aridity indicator and foresee its future change
in value. This methodological approach allowed to set priorities by identifying
groups of more threatened and less prepared municipalities in the territories, which
show more differences between the present climatological parameter values and the
values predicted assuming future climatic scenarios, have less climate change
related institutional instruments, present social weaknesses (poverty and inequality), or show environmental degradation. Our results showed the presence of arid
zones in 43% of Mexico’s 266 coastal municipalities, comprising more than half of
the total coastal population. Comparing present and future scenarios allows differentiating regions already arid that will remain in this situation (Northern Pacific)
from regions that are currently humid but will shift to an arid (Caribbean Sea) or
desert category (Northern Gulf of Mexico). Both used models predicted a future
shift of all categories towards dryness and a worrisome number that will turn to
desert and arid categories. We found regional heterogeneity and a complex contribution of each subindex to the total coastal vulnerability index. We concluded that
our results can be used as an input to guide the current coastal policies to promote a
development model that decreases the vulnerability of coastal municipalities and
G. Seingier (*) · O. Jiménez-Orocio
Facultad de Ciencias Marinas, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California,
Ensenada, BC, Mexico
e-mail: georges@uabc.edu.mx
I. Espejel
Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California UABC, Ensenada, BC, Mexico
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
S. Lucatello et al. (eds.), Stewardship of Future Drylands and Climate
Change in the Global South, Springer Climate,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22464-6_17
Chapter 17
Vulnerability to the Effects of Climate
Change: Future Aridness and Present
Governance in the Coastal Municipalities
of Mexico
G. Seingier, O. Jiménez-Orocio, and I. Espejel
Abstract We estimated vulnerability to climate change in the coastal municipalities of Mexico through an interdisciplinary approach using an index model with
three components: (1) Exposure to dryness and climate change (Lang’s dryness
index), (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptation capacity. Data input were
national census data and general circulation model outputs (2045–2069 scenario).
Scenarios were compared to reference climatology through Lang’s aridity index,
which was found to be practical as an aridity indicator and foresee its future change
in value. This methodological approach allowed to set priorities by identifying
groups of more threatened and less prepared municipalities in the territories, which
show more differences between the present climatological parameter values and the
values predicted assuming future climatic scenarios, have less climate change
related institutional instruments, present social weaknesses (poverty and inequality), or show environmental degradation. Our results showed the presence of arid
zones in 43% of Mexico’s 266 coastal municipalities, comprising more than half of
the total coastal population. Comparing present and future scenarios allows differentiating regions already arid that will remain in this situation (Northern Pacific)
from regions that are currently humid but will shift to an arid (Caribbean Sea) or
desert category (Northern Gulf of Mexico). Both used models predicted a future
shift of all categories towards dryness and a worrisome number that will turn to
desert and arid categories. We found regional heterogeneity and a complex contribution of each subindex to the total coastal vulnerability index. We concluded that
our results can be used as an input to guide the current coastal policies to promote a
development model that decreases the vulnerability of coastal municipalities and
G. Seingier (*) · O. Jiménez-Orocio
Facultad de Ciencias Marinas, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California,
Ensenada, BC, Mexico
e-mail: georges@uabc.edu.mx
I. Espejel
Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California UABC, Ensenada, BC, Mexico