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Keywords Aridification · Environmental governance · Geospatial analysis ·
Communal and non-communal lands
Introduction
Aridification of drylands and the conversion of landscapes into increasingly dry
ones is a problem identified by the scientific and international policy community as
well as the sustainable development goals. Societal responses to aridification, just
like many other environmental change processes, are mediated by the institutional
arrangements present in different geographic/historic contexts, and at different geographic scales. Nation-state boundaries, when used as a broad proxy variable for
historical/and political trajectories, can provide insights about the interaction
between countrywide institutions and environmental changes, such as aridification.
Within subnational scales, analyzing aridification through the lens of land based
institutions such as land tenure regimes, can provide further detailed insights. For
example, we can explore the allocation lands (i.e., who received drier lands) and
speculate about which type of property regimes was and will be most affected by
aridification. In addition, analyzing land tenure regimes can potentially hint at links
between resource management approaches (e.g., common property regimes) and
the observed patterns and trends of aridification.
In this exploratory study, we address the degree to which drylands have increased
and become increasingly arid over time using geographic information systems
(GIS) and climate data across 33 Latin American country boundaries. In addition,
we evaluate aridity trends across two property regime types in Mexico. In order to
undertake these tasks, we assess and identify changes using the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) Aridity Index (AI) that measures the annual ratio
of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation. Annual fields of land surface precipitation and air temperature data are extracted from 1960 to 2017 over a 0.5° grid
resolution provided by the University of Delaware. In addition, we compare AI summary statistics and trends between communal and non-communal land property
regimes in Mexico as a proxy of communal environmental governance.
Aridity Index (AI) in Latin America and Drylands Definitions
Recent research about aridification based on predictions of different climate models suggests that the aridity index (AI) is projected to decrease in the next coming decades. Counterintuitively, this decrease in AI means that most areas of the
world—including Latin America as whole—will become drier as a consequence
of anthropogenic climate change (Huang et al. 2016). These conditions would
make desertification worse and make already vulnerable populations even more
vulnerable.
E. Nickl et al.
Keywords Aridification · Environmental governance · Geospatial analysis ·
Communal and non-communal lands
Introduction
Aridification of drylands and the conversion of landscapes into increasingly dry
ones is a problem identified by the scientific and international policy community as
well as the sustainable development goals. Societal responses to aridification, just
like many other environmental change processes, are mediated by the institutional
arrangements present in different geographic/historic contexts, and at different geographic scales. Nation-state boundaries, when used as a broad proxy variable for
historical/and political trajectories, can provide insights about the interaction
between countrywide institutions and environmental changes, such as aridification.
Within subnational scales, analyzing aridification through the lens of land based
institutions such as land tenure regimes, can provide further detailed insights. For
example, we can explore the allocation lands (i.e., who received drier lands) and
speculate about which type of property regimes was and will be most affected by
aridification. In addition, analyzing land tenure regimes can potentially hint at links
between resource management approaches (e.g., common property regimes) and
the observed patterns and trends of aridification.
In this exploratory study, we address the degree to which drylands have increased
and become increasingly arid over time using geographic information systems
(GIS) and climate data across 33 Latin American country boundaries. In addition,
we evaluate aridity trends across two property regime types in Mexico. In order to
undertake these tasks, we assess and identify changes using the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) Aridity Index (AI) that measures the annual ratio
of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation. Annual fields of land surface precipitation and air temperature data are extracted from 1960 to 2017 over a 0.5° grid
resolution provided by the University of Delaware. In addition, we compare AI summary statistics and trends between communal and non-communal land property
regimes in Mexico as a proxy of communal environmental governance.
Aridity Index (AI) in Latin America and Drylands Definitions
Recent research about aridification based on predictions of different climate models suggests that the aridity index (AI) is projected to decrease in the next coming decades. Counterintuitively, this decrease in AI means that most areas of the
world—including Latin America as whole—will become drier as a consequence
of anthropogenic climate change (Huang et al. 2016). These conditions would
make desertification worse and make already vulnerable populations even more
vulnerable.
E. Nickl et al.