129
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
S. Lucatello et al. (eds.), Stewardship of Future Drylands and Climate
Change in the Global South, Springer Climate,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22464-6_8
Chapter 8
Spatial and Temporal Analysis
of Precipitation and Drought Trends Using
the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
(CFSR)
D. A. Martinez-Cruz, M. Gutiérrez, and M. T. Alarcón-Herrera
Abstract Determination of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and
drought remains a challenge in many arid and semi-arid regions. Generally, in these
areas, precipitation measurements obtained from field stations are few or unreliable.
Reanalysis precipitation data has opened up new large-scale hydrological application in data-sparse or ungauged catchments. This study presents a method based on
GIS, statistical tests, and satellite-based precipitation for the analysis of spatial and
temporal precipitation and drought trends. As a case study, we used 35 years (1979–
2013) of precipitation data from the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) for
the Mexican state of Durango. For trend detection, we used the statistical test of
Mann–Kendall at 5% standard precipitation index timescale of 12 months (SPI-12)
to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of drought, and principal component analysis
(PCA) was applied to characterize the spatial patterns. In many of the grid locations
analyzed, the precipitation trends were not statistically significant. However, the
months within winter and spring, except for June, showed a decreasing trend in
precipitation, while the months of July, August, and September showed an increasing trend. This variation in rainfall intensity agrees with the climate pattern reported
for this region. The frequency of drought events for each month during the period of
analysis was mapped. The incidence of drought events was higher in June and
September. Drought events are present all around the state of Durango, but they are
more frequent in the northern part, in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mapimi, and
Laguna regions.
D. A. Martinez-Cruz · M. T. Alarcón-Herrera (*)
Centro de Investigación en Materiales Avanzados, S.C. Durango, Durango, Mexico
e-mail: teresa.alarcon@cimav.edu.mx
M. Gutiérrez
Department of Geography, Geology and Planning, Missouri State University,
Springfield, MO, USA
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
S. Lucatello et al. (eds.), Stewardship of Future Drylands and Climate
Change in the Global South, Springer Climate,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22464-6_8
Chapter 8
Spatial and Temporal Analysis
of Precipitation and Drought Trends Using
the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
(CFSR)
D. A. Martinez-Cruz, M. Gutiérrez, and M. T. Alarcón-Herrera
Abstract Determination of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and
drought remains a challenge in many arid and semi-arid regions. Generally, in these
areas, precipitation measurements obtained from field stations are few or unreliable.
Reanalysis precipitation data has opened up new large-scale hydrological application in data-sparse or ungauged catchments. This study presents a method based on
GIS, statistical tests, and satellite-based precipitation for the analysis of spatial and
temporal precipitation and drought trends. As a case study, we used 35 years (1979–
2013) of precipitation data from the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) for
the Mexican state of Durango. For trend detection, we used the statistical test of
Mann–Kendall at 5% standard precipitation index timescale of 12 months (SPI-12)
to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of drought, and principal component analysis
(PCA) was applied to characterize the spatial patterns. In many of the grid locations
analyzed, the precipitation trends were not statistically significant. However, the
months within winter and spring, except for June, showed a decreasing trend in
precipitation, while the months of July, August, and September showed an increasing trend. This variation in rainfall intensity agrees with the climate pattern reported
for this region. The frequency of drought events for each month during the period of
analysis was mapped. The incidence of drought events was higher in June and
September. Drought events are present all around the state of Durango, but they are
more frequent in the northern part, in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mapimi, and
Laguna regions.
D. A. Martinez-Cruz · M. T. Alarcón-Herrera (*)
Centro de Investigación en Materiales Avanzados, S.C. Durango, Durango, Mexico
e-mail: teresa.alarcon@cimav.edu.mx
M. Gutiérrez
Department of Geography, Geology and Planning, Missouri State University,
Springfield, MO, USA