354
staple crops in sub-Saharan Africa, such as maize (Zea mays), sorghum (Sorghum
bicolor), millet (Pennisetum glaucum), and cassava (Manihot esculenta). Yield
reduction could be as much as 50% by 2020 in rain-fed croplands (Jones and
Thornton 2009). Livestock systems will also be affected, as climate change is
expected to reduce availability of forage for grazing animals and increase the prevalence of animal pests and diseases. The high dependence of smallholders on agriculture for their livelihoods and food security makes them very vulnerable to climate
variability and change. Before looking into ways to enable smallholder farmers to
be able to cope with the consequences of adverse weather and climate conditions,
we need to have a common understanding of what comprises vulnerability and how
it is linked to other concepts used in this chapter, most notably resilience, livelihoods, and transformation.
Agricultural production is the backbone of the rural economy in African countries. It employs more than 60% of the population and generates a substantial economic value, contributing to about 30% of the GDP. Despite its enormous
significance in terms of economic value in rural regions, as well as closely linked
implications on food security and poverty reduction, the main characteristics of
these regions are widespread poverty and extensive areas of low agricultural productivity due to steadily degrading resource bases, weak markets, conflicts, and
high climatic risks (Vermeulen et al. 2012). Climate change is expected to further
exacerbate the risks that farmers face. The increased global human population,
growth, and industrialisation along with the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG)
caused by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, clearing of land for agriculture,
and agricultural intensification are considered to be the main culprits of climate
change. According to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, the earths’ surface temperatures have already increased by 0.5 °C in most parts of Africa in the past hundred
years. The increase of global mean surface temperature by the end of this century is
predicted to be between 2 and 4 °C according to most scenarios (Pachauri et al.
2014), while some parts of Sahel and tropical West Africa could experience surface
temperature increases between 3 and 6 °C above the late-twentieth-century baseline
(Niang et al. 2014). Temperatures in the African continent are likely to rise more
quickly than in other land areas, particularly in more arid regions. While there is a
lack of sufficient observational data to draw reliable conclusions about trends in
annual precipitation and the projected changes in annual precipitation, most of the
current findings show a likely decrease in northern, western, central, and southern
Africa. The increase in annual precipitation and wetter climate is projected only for
eastern Africa. Furthermore, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events,
such as heat waves, flooding, and drought, has also been reported in some areas over
the past few decades, and it is expected to increase in the future.
Agriculture, and therefore the livelihoods of those dependent on agriculture, is
extremely vulnerable to climate change. Climate change affects food production
directly through changes in agroecological conditions and indirectly by affecting
growth and distribution of incomes and thus the demand for agricultural produce
(Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007). The impacts of climate change on agriculture are
primarily reflected in changes in mean temperatures and precipitation, which
B. K. Sitaula et al.
staple crops in sub-Saharan Africa, such as maize (Zea mays), sorghum (Sorghum
bicolor), millet (Pennisetum glaucum), and cassava (Manihot esculenta). Yield
reduction could be as much as 50% by 2020 in rain-fed croplands (Jones and
Thornton 2009). Livestock systems will also be affected, as climate change is
expected to reduce availability of forage for grazing animals and increase the prevalence of animal pests and diseases. The high dependence of smallholders on agriculture for their livelihoods and food security makes them very vulnerable to climate
variability and change. Before looking into ways to enable smallholder farmers to
be able to cope with the consequences of adverse weather and climate conditions,
we need to have a common understanding of what comprises vulnerability and how
it is linked to other concepts used in this chapter, most notably resilience, livelihoods, and transformation.
Agricultural production is the backbone of the rural economy in African countries. It employs more than 60% of the population and generates a substantial economic value, contributing to about 30% of the GDP. Despite its enormous
significance in terms of economic value in rural regions, as well as closely linked
implications on food security and poverty reduction, the main characteristics of
these regions are widespread poverty and extensive areas of low agricultural productivity due to steadily degrading resource bases, weak markets, conflicts, and
high climatic risks (Vermeulen et al. 2012). Climate change is expected to further
exacerbate the risks that farmers face. The increased global human population,
growth, and industrialisation along with the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG)
caused by the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, clearing of land for agriculture,
and agricultural intensification are considered to be the main culprits of climate
change. According to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, the earths’ surface temperatures have already increased by 0.5 °C in most parts of Africa in the past hundred
years. The increase of global mean surface temperature by the end of this century is
predicted to be between 2 and 4 °C according to most scenarios (Pachauri et al.
2014), while some parts of Sahel and tropical West Africa could experience surface
temperature increases between 3 and 6 °C above the late-twentieth-century baseline
(Niang et al. 2014). Temperatures in the African continent are likely to rise more
quickly than in other land areas, particularly in more arid regions. While there is a
lack of sufficient observational data to draw reliable conclusions about trends in
annual precipitation and the projected changes in annual precipitation, most of the
current findings show a likely decrease in northern, western, central, and southern
Africa. The increase in annual precipitation and wetter climate is projected only for
eastern Africa. Furthermore, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events,
such as heat waves, flooding, and drought, has also been reported in some areas over
the past few decades, and it is expected to increase in the future.
Agriculture, and therefore the livelihoods of those dependent on agriculture, is
extremely vulnerable to climate change. Climate change affects food production
directly through changes in agroecological conditions and indirectly by affecting
growth and distribution of incomes and thus the demand for agricultural produce
(Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007). The impacts of climate change on agriculture are
primarily reflected in changes in mean temperatures and precipitation, which
B. K. Sitaula et al.