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1 Introduction
Africa is the world’s most vulnerable region to climate change (Challinor et al.
2007; Dasgupta et al. 2014). However, spatiotemporal variation in terms of vulnerability and susceptibility exists among and within African countries (Adhikari et al.
2015). Vulnerability to climate change is defined as ‘the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to and unable to cope
with, adverse impacts of climate change’ (IPCC 2007). Brooks et al. (2005) outlined socioeconomic factors that determine a nation’s vulnerability and adaptive
capacity to climate change. These factors include economy, health and nutrition,
literacy rate, infrastructure, geography and demography, and dependence on agriculture (Brooks et al. 2005). Malawi is one of the world’s poorest countries with a
gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of about USD480 (The World Bank Group
2017). The country’s economy is highly dependent on rainfed agriculture. The
majority of the population live in rural areas. About 55% of females are literate
compared to 73% of males. The HIV/AIDS prevalence rate is 9.2% (The World Fact
Book 2016). Since 2013/2014, food insecurity has been increasing (SADC/VAC
2016). Poverty rates are highest in southern Malawi where there is a higher risk of
flooding and waterborne diseases (The World Fact Book 2016; Mwale et al. 2015).
Malawi is thus highly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or because of
human activity, will significantly affect agriculture (Delcour et al. 2015; Aktar et al.
2009; Noyes et al. 2009; USAID 2007). It is difficult to isolate climate change from
normal climate variability, i.e. the way climate elements such as temperature and
rainfall change from the mean value in a given month/season/year (McSweeney
et al. 2010; Wood and Moreniere 2013). Three external atmospheric drivers bring
about Malawi’s climate: (1) the El Niño Southern Oscillation, an Indo-Pacific phenomenon that modulates circulation; (2) the Indian Ocean Dipole, an equatorial
pattern that affects rainfall; and (3) the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (McSweeney
et al. 2010; Wood and Moreniere 2013). Climate impacts that Malawi is experiencing include changing onset and shortening of the rainfall season, increased frequency of riverine and flash floods, droughts and heat waves (Zulu et al. 2012).
Understanding how climate change/weather variability affects specific components
of the agricultural sector is important for the development and effective implementation of mitigation and coping strategies.
1.1 Importance of Sugarcane
Sugarcane is a source of livelihood to millions of people and is integral to the
economic development program of sugar producing countries (Hess et al. 2016;
FAOSTAT 2018). It grows well in areas with long periods of sunlight (12–14 hrs.)
where the temperature range is between 20 °C and 35 °C. The crop requires high
humidity (80–85%) and a minimum of 1100 mm of rain per year or equivalent
T. K. Donga et al.
1 Introduction
Africa is the world’s most vulnerable region to climate change (Challinor et al.
2007; Dasgupta et al. 2014). However, spatiotemporal variation in terms of vulnerability and susceptibility exists among and within African countries (Adhikari et al.
2015). Vulnerability to climate change is defined as ‘the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to and unable to cope
with, adverse impacts of climate change’ (IPCC 2007). Brooks et al. (2005) outlined socioeconomic factors that determine a nation’s vulnerability and adaptive
capacity to climate change. These factors include economy, health and nutrition,
literacy rate, infrastructure, geography and demography, and dependence on agriculture (Brooks et al. 2005). Malawi is one of the world’s poorest countries with a
gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of about USD480 (The World Bank Group
2017). The country’s economy is highly dependent on rainfed agriculture. The
majority of the population live in rural areas. About 55% of females are literate
compared to 73% of males. The HIV/AIDS prevalence rate is 9.2% (The World Fact
Book 2016). Since 2013/2014, food insecurity has been increasing (SADC/VAC
2016). Poverty rates are highest in southern Malawi where there is a higher risk of
flooding and waterborne diseases (The World Fact Book 2016; Mwale et al. 2015).
Malawi is thus highly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or because of
human activity, will significantly affect agriculture (Delcour et al. 2015; Aktar et al.
2009; Noyes et al. 2009; USAID 2007). It is difficult to isolate climate change from
normal climate variability, i.e. the way climate elements such as temperature and
rainfall change from the mean value in a given month/season/year (McSweeney
et al. 2010; Wood and Moreniere 2013). Three external atmospheric drivers bring
about Malawi’s climate: (1) the El Niño Southern Oscillation, an Indo-Pacific phenomenon that modulates circulation; (2) the Indian Ocean Dipole, an equatorial
pattern that affects rainfall; and (3) the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (McSweeney
et al. 2010; Wood and Moreniere 2013). Climate impacts that Malawi is experiencing include changing onset and shortening of the rainfall season, increased frequency of riverine and flash floods, droughts and heat waves (Zulu et al. 2012).
Understanding how climate change/weather variability affects specific components
of the agricultural sector is important for the development and effective implementation of mitigation and coping strategies.
1.1 Importance of Sugarcane
Sugarcane is a source of livelihood to millions of people and is integral to the
economic development program of sugar producing countries (Hess et al. 2016;
FAOSTAT 2018). It grows well in areas with long periods of sunlight (12–14 hrs.)
where the temperature range is between 20 °C and 35 °C. The crop requires high
humidity (80–85%) and a minimum of 1100 mm of rain per year or equivalent
T. K. Donga et al.