562
production are set to be re-negotiated, along with the possibility of raising reservoir
levels on the Canadian side to protect US cities from floods.
Taken together, managing conflicts that may arise with the FEW system is a
challenge, one made more significant due to population growth and the impact of
climate change.
20.2.3 Climate Change as a “Threat Multiplier”
While the climate has always changed, a warming climate across the globe is leading to more extremes in weather, sea level rise, and in some places, weather systems
that stall in place like Hurricane Harvey in 2016 which dropped more than 50 in. of
rain in a concentrated area (see Chap. 11, climate change).
Such extremes are acting like a “threat multiplier” that heightens underlying
tensions and dynamics and may create new threats upon the nexus. In 2011, António
Guterres, former High Commissioner for Refugees, noted in an address to the UN
Security Council that “climate change is the defining challenge of our times: a challenge which interacts with and reinforces the other global megatrends such as population growth, urbanization, and growing food, water and energy insecurity. It is a
challenge which is adding to the scale and complexity of human displacement, and
a challenge that has important implications for the maintenance of international
peace and security” (Guterres 2011).
The 2011 Arab Spring is a prime example of climate threats to multiple sectors
of society. Across the region, extreme and prolonged drought forced people to the
Illustration of Complex Decisions Made at the Individual Level
Global dynamics often play out at very local levels and in individual decisions. Early in 2012, Ethan Cox, an Illinois farmer, had a choice to make.
After 2 years of extreme rain and floods in 2010 and 2011, many Midwestern
farmers were confident that another season of rainfall would produce bountiful crops. However, Mr. Cox realized based on past experience, scant snowfall
during the winter of 2012 might mean a drought during the growing season.
With unseasonably warm temperatures in March, Mr. Cox planted his crops
earlier than his neighbors to take advantage of whatever soil moisture
remained and gave his crops a better chance to survive. In addition, using notill methods on his land reduced erosion and allowed cover crops to shade his
seedlings. By planting earlier than timelines set by agricultural professionals,
however, Mr. Cox made himself ineligible to receive insurance payments if he
lost his crops from drought or intense storms. Ultimately, Mr. Cox had a high
crop yield compared to his neighbors because of his adaptation techniques to
use less water and energy to grow corn and soybeans (McGraw 2015). This
kind of story illustrates the difficult decisions being made daily: decisions that
affect every part of the FEW system.
L. B. Fowler and R. T. Caccese
production are set to be re-negotiated, along with the possibility of raising reservoir
levels on the Canadian side to protect US cities from floods.
Taken together, managing conflicts that may arise with the FEW system is a
challenge, one made more significant due to population growth and the impact of
climate change.
20.2.3 Climate Change as a “Threat Multiplier”
While the climate has always changed, a warming climate across the globe is leading to more extremes in weather, sea level rise, and in some places, weather systems
that stall in place like Hurricane Harvey in 2016 which dropped more than 50 in. of
rain in a concentrated area (see Chap. 11, climate change).
Such extremes are acting like a “threat multiplier” that heightens underlying
tensions and dynamics and may create new threats upon the nexus. In 2011, António
Guterres, former High Commissioner for Refugees, noted in an address to the UN
Security Council that “climate change is the defining challenge of our times: a challenge which interacts with and reinforces the other global megatrends such as population growth, urbanization, and growing food, water and energy insecurity. It is a
challenge which is adding to the scale and complexity of human displacement, and
a challenge that has important implications for the maintenance of international
peace and security” (Guterres 2011).
The 2011 Arab Spring is a prime example of climate threats to multiple sectors
of society. Across the region, extreme and prolonged drought forced people to the
Illustration of Complex Decisions Made at the Individual Level
Global dynamics often play out at very local levels and in individual decisions. Early in 2012, Ethan Cox, an Illinois farmer, had a choice to make.
After 2 years of extreme rain and floods in 2010 and 2011, many Midwestern
farmers were confident that another season of rainfall would produce bountiful crops. However, Mr. Cox realized based on past experience, scant snowfall
during the winter of 2012 might mean a drought during the growing season.
With unseasonably warm temperatures in March, Mr. Cox planted his crops
earlier than his neighbors to take advantage of whatever soil moisture
remained and gave his crops a better chance to survive. In addition, using notill methods on his land reduced erosion and allowed cover crops to shade his
seedlings. By planting earlier than timelines set by agricultural professionals,
however, Mr. Cox made himself ineligible to receive insurance payments if he
lost his crops from drought or intense storms. Ultimately, Mr. Cox had a high
crop yield compared to his neighbors because of his adaptation techniques to
use less water and energy to grow corn and soybeans (McGraw 2015). This
kind of story illustrates the difficult decisions being made daily: decisions that
affect every part of the FEW system.
L. B. Fowler and R. T. Caccese