29
often based on expectations about the depletion of known reserves, assuming present rates of consumption unchanged by discoveries of additional resources or
changes in technology. The future of infrastructure is often based upon assumptions
about the operating lifetime of the infrastructure (e.g., a power plant) in the absence
of changes in economics, technologies, and policies that might shorten or lengthen
the operating lifetime.
Assumptions about how technologies and policies will evolve are intrinsically
uncertain. Like sporting events, while everyone knows that there will be a particular
score, no one knows for certain what it will be. The careful selection and communication of assumptions are critical to successful studies of the FEW nexus.
Assumptions and models are often tested through monitoring what is actually happening on the ground through networks of gages and sensors (sensor systems),
market analysis, and so on.
The public and decision-makers commonly believe that assumptions in scientific
models are declarations of what scholars “believe will happen,” and model projections are quantified predictions of what will happen. This is incorrect and is frequently the source of frustrations on both sides.
A second common belief is that there are clear and straightforward answers to
food, energy, and water challenges. As the journalist, satirist, and cultural critic
Harold Louis Mencken wrote,
Explanations exist; they have existed for all time; there is always a well-known solution to
every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong. The ancients, in the case at bar, laid the
blame upon the gods: sometimes they were remote and surly, and sometimes they were
kind. In the Middle Ages lesser powers took a hand in the matter, and so one reads of works
of art inspired by Our Lady, by the Blessed Saints, by the souls of the departed, and even by
the devil. [from H. L. Mencken (1920), Prejudices: second series, Alfred A. Knopf]
Throughout the remainder of this book, the reader should always remember that
the systems being addressed are complex and that projections about how FEW systems will evolve will usually contain significant uncertainties. Uncertainties require
decision- makers to acknowledge risk and adopt strategies that can be adapted as
understanding develops. Different decision-makers and different stakeholders will
have different perceptions and tolerance of risk.
Key Points
• The integration of food, energy, and water systems is essential because of five
criteria:
– FEW systems deliver critical consumable commodities;
– They are heavy on physical infrastructure;
– They are footprint-heavy;
– They must be extremely affordable; and
– They are policy-heavy at all levels of government.
• Several critical processes influence the FEW nexus, including population growth
and societal development; air pollution; ecosystem services; climate change; and
socio-political-economic processes.
1 Introduction
often based on expectations about the depletion of known reserves, assuming present rates of consumption unchanged by discoveries of additional resources or
changes in technology. The future of infrastructure is often based upon assumptions
about the operating lifetime of the infrastructure (e.g., a power plant) in the absence
of changes in economics, technologies, and policies that might shorten or lengthen
the operating lifetime.
Assumptions about how technologies and policies will evolve are intrinsically
uncertain. Like sporting events, while everyone knows that there will be a particular
score, no one knows for certain what it will be. The careful selection and communication of assumptions are critical to successful studies of the FEW nexus.
Assumptions and models are often tested through monitoring what is actually happening on the ground through networks of gages and sensors (sensor systems),
market analysis, and so on.
The public and decision-makers commonly believe that assumptions in scientific
models are declarations of what scholars “believe will happen,” and model projections are quantified predictions of what will happen. This is incorrect and is frequently the source of frustrations on both sides.
A second common belief is that there are clear and straightforward answers to
food, energy, and water challenges. As the journalist, satirist, and cultural critic
Harold Louis Mencken wrote,
Explanations exist; they have existed for all time; there is always a well-known solution to
every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong. The ancients, in the case at bar, laid the
blame upon the gods: sometimes they were remote and surly, and sometimes they were
kind. In the Middle Ages lesser powers took a hand in the matter, and so one reads of works
of art inspired by Our Lady, by the Blessed Saints, by the souls of the departed, and even by
the devil. [from H. L. Mencken (1920), Prejudices: second series, Alfred A. Knopf]
Throughout the remainder of this book, the reader should always remember that
the systems being addressed are complex and that projections about how FEW systems will evolve will usually contain significant uncertainties. Uncertainties require
decision- makers to acknowledge risk and adopt strategies that can be adapted as
understanding develops. Different decision-makers and different stakeholders will
have different perceptions and tolerance of risk.
Key Points
• The integration of food, energy, and water systems is essential because of five
criteria:
– FEW systems deliver critical consumable commodities;
– They are heavy on physical infrastructure;
– They are footprint-heavy;
– They must be extremely affordable; and
– They are policy-heavy at all levels of government.
• Several critical processes influence the FEW nexus, including population growth
and societal development; air pollution; ecosystem services; climate change; and
socio-political-economic processes.
1 Introduction