413
1. An analysis of the current status of water resources in the region using an
Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM: Global Change Assessment
Model).
2. A scenario analysis focused on water scarcity and potential impacts on the
energy and food sectors in the region.
3. Recommendations for further analysis that can inform policy making at
the national level, and contribute to ongoing efforts towards integrated
planning at the regional level.
Two illustrative examples of water resources management scenarios were
proposed to better understand the implications of different water management
approaches on water scarcity, energy generation and food production in the
MENA region.
The Unlimited Water scenario assumes unlimited water resources where
all sectors within the economy can achieve all their water demands with no
water constraints. This serves as a benchmarking scenario and to quantify the
projected changes in the water and agricultural sectors under no water
constraints.
The Limited Water scenario focuses on constraining the water demands to
the available water resources (renewable surface and groundwater, nonrenewable groundwater resources, desalinated water) within each river basin. In this
scenario, two options for limiting water resources at the basin level were simulated. The first is to account for the increase in the cost of nonrenewable
groundwater as the groundwater aquifers get depleted over time but with no
limitation on the total amount of extracted water, as discussed in Kim et al.
(2016). The second is using a methodology to estimate the amount economically available groundwater and constructing marginal cost resources curves.
The LimitedWater scenario also incorporates adaptation measures to be
deployed as a means to mitigate the water scarcity problem. More specifically, the expansion of desalination and more efficient irrigation technologies
are included as adaptation measures. This is done to shed light on the level of
necessary adaptation to close the water gap in the region and the associated
investment costs that are associated with those measures. Also, by comparing
this scenario to the UnlimitedWater scenario, one can estimate the economic
impacts associated with limitations in water on the economy of the region.
The impacts of constraining water translate into impacts on water use for
agriculture.
Figures 15.5 and 15.6 compare the UnlimitedWater and LimitedWater scenarios with respect to agricultural production across a number of crops.
Noteworthy large reductions in production occur in Saudi Arabia (almost
threefold reduction when limiting water) and Yemen (approximately 60%
overall reduction) as a result of constraining water demand.
Box 15.4 (continued)
15 Modeling
1. An analysis of the current status of water resources in the region using an
Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM: Global Change Assessment
Model).
2. A scenario analysis focused on water scarcity and potential impacts on the
energy and food sectors in the region.
3. Recommendations for further analysis that can inform policy making at
the national level, and contribute to ongoing efforts towards integrated
planning at the regional level.
Two illustrative examples of water resources management scenarios were
proposed to better understand the implications of different water management
approaches on water scarcity, energy generation and food production in the
MENA region.
The Unlimited Water scenario assumes unlimited water resources where
all sectors within the economy can achieve all their water demands with no
water constraints. This serves as a benchmarking scenario and to quantify the
projected changes in the water and agricultural sectors under no water
constraints.
The Limited Water scenario focuses on constraining the water demands to
the available water resources (renewable surface and groundwater, nonrenewable groundwater resources, desalinated water) within each river basin. In this
scenario, two options for limiting water resources at the basin level were simulated. The first is to account for the increase in the cost of nonrenewable
groundwater as the groundwater aquifers get depleted over time but with no
limitation on the total amount of extracted water, as discussed in Kim et al.
(2016). The second is using a methodology to estimate the amount economically available groundwater and constructing marginal cost resources curves.
The LimitedWater scenario also incorporates adaptation measures to be
deployed as a means to mitigate the water scarcity problem. More specifically, the expansion of desalination and more efficient irrigation technologies
are included as adaptation measures. This is done to shed light on the level of
necessary adaptation to close the water gap in the region and the associated
investment costs that are associated with those measures. Also, by comparing
this scenario to the UnlimitedWater scenario, one can estimate the economic
impacts associated with limitations in water on the economy of the region.
The impacts of constraining water translate into impacts on water use for
agriculture.
Figures 15.5 and 15.6 compare the UnlimitedWater and LimitedWater scenarios with respect to agricultural production across a number of crops.
Noteworthy large reductions in production occur in Saudi Arabia (almost
threefold reduction when limiting water) and Yemen (approximately 60%
overall reduction) as a result of constraining water demand.
Box 15.4 (continued)
15 Modeling