331
12.3 Scales of Questions and Decisions
Spatial scales relate to biophysical phenomena and processes, environmental conditions, the biophysical resources present within a system, and the flows of goods and
services, financial resources, and people. Temporal scales related to these phenomena have a very wide range from daily (diurnal, e.g., insolation) and seasonal/annual
(e.g., precipitation, to longer-term climatic-, drought-, fire-, economic-, demographic-, and even ice-age cycles).
Using average numbers, such as the average amount of precipitation in a given
year, may mask temporal scales that matter. As noted in Chap. 11, one impact of
climate change is increasingly heavier precipitation and more drought. While average amounts of precipitation in a given year may be increasing, lack of precipitation
during key points of a growing season may hinder crop production. In other words,
a precipitation cycle that is drought, drought, then flood is on average fine but is
entirely problematic for plant growth.
The human dimensions of FEW systems are shaped by cultural/religious and
economic motivations, governmental laws, and public and private policies also
operating at a range of spatial scales defined by the extent of a governmental or
economic structure (town, city, county, state/province, country, and multinational);
an economic or trade or migration system; or a cultural/demographic common
denominator. Political and economic and demographic timescales are usually a significant factor in influencing FEWS decisions. For example, election cycles can be
an important driver.
In fact, these anthropocentric scales tend to be the primary and indispensable
scales in FEW systems, a fact that physical scientists and engineers often forget.
This forgetfulness leads to overly narrow definitions of the problems and questions
and cripples both the scientific accuracy and applied utility of the resulting science
and engineering. We cannot attain Pasteur’s quadrant without getting the scales
right. Many human systems serve explicitly to overcome and/or bridge physical
process scales toward the purpose of allowing people and societies to transcend the
small-scale physical constraints and variations. Vice versa, politicians, and business
people often forget that their options are ultimately constrained by large-scale physical processes that are hard to see from their perspective. This forgetfulness of physical reality leads to sustainability problems and ineffective policy.
In FEW systems, it is, therefore, essential for all human agents to consider scale,
and to pay some attention to the “other” scales outside one’s primary scale of focus.
We need to know what system components are important to consider, and what is
acceptable to omit, in any given circumstance; scale is often an essential tool with
which to make these judgments. In a system, our success as scientists and policymakers always depends on an accurate awareness of scale.
We have already noted that complex systems (see Sect. 2.2) are frequently composed of diverse subsystems operating at different scales. Unsurprisingly, one of the
key challenges of any nexus study, is integrating components that operate at different spatial and temporal and social scales. Different physical components in a nexus
12 Questions and Scales
12.3 Scales of Questions and Decisions
Spatial scales relate to biophysical phenomena and processes, environmental conditions, the biophysical resources present within a system, and the flows of goods and
services, financial resources, and people. Temporal scales related to these phenomena have a very wide range from daily (diurnal, e.g., insolation) and seasonal/annual
(e.g., precipitation, to longer-term climatic-, drought-, fire-, economic-, demographic-, and even ice-age cycles).
Using average numbers, such as the average amount of precipitation in a given
year, may mask temporal scales that matter. As noted in Chap. 11, one impact of
climate change is increasingly heavier precipitation and more drought. While average amounts of precipitation in a given year may be increasing, lack of precipitation
during key points of a growing season may hinder crop production. In other words,
a precipitation cycle that is drought, drought, then flood is on average fine but is
entirely problematic for plant growth.
The human dimensions of FEW systems are shaped by cultural/religious and
economic motivations, governmental laws, and public and private policies also
operating at a range of spatial scales defined by the extent of a governmental or
economic structure (town, city, county, state/province, country, and multinational);
an economic or trade or migration system; or a cultural/demographic common
denominator. Political and economic and demographic timescales are usually a significant factor in influencing FEWS decisions. For example, election cycles can be
an important driver.
In fact, these anthropocentric scales tend to be the primary and indispensable
scales in FEW systems, a fact that physical scientists and engineers often forget.
This forgetfulness leads to overly narrow definitions of the problems and questions
and cripples both the scientific accuracy and applied utility of the resulting science
and engineering. We cannot attain Pasteur’s quadrant without getting the scales
right. Many human systems serve explicitly to overcome and/or bridge physical
process scales toward the purpose of allowing people and societies to transcend the
small-scale physical constraints and variations. Vice versa, politicians, and business
people often forget that their options are ultimately constrained by large-scale physical processes that are hard to see from their perspective. This forgetfulness of physical reality leads to sustainability problems and ineffective policy.
In FEW systems, it is, therefore, essential for all human agents to consider scale,
and to pay some attention to the “other” scales outside one’s primary scale of focus.
We need to know what system components are important to consider, and what is
acceptable to omit, in any given circumstance; scale is often an essential tool with
which to make these judgments. In a system, our success as scientists and policymakers always depends on an accurate awareness of scale.
We have already noted that complex systems (see Sect. 2.2) are frequently composed of diverse subsystems operating at different scales. Unsurprisingly, one of the
key challenges of any nexus study, is integrating components that operate at different spatial and temporal and social scales. Different physical components in a nexus
12 Questions and Scales