46
ysis. The basic question for which answers were
sought was: was time enough for humans to break
the still active processes leading to a global environmental catastrophe and thus to avoid this
catastrophe?
Model version 10 is remarkable in which the
conditions are the following: global birth and
production control, introduction of birth control,
production control, pollution reducing technologies, protection against erosion and the careful
usage of resources by 1995. In such conditions
population could slowly increase to 7.7 billion
people who could live at a good living standard.
Expectable average age would be high,
Environmental contamination would be reduced
gradually from 2030. This state could be maintained till 2100 as well (Fig. 2.21).
Meadows and her colleagues run the model
with the assumption that measures in version 10
will be made only in 2015. Providing the mentioned
conditions so late resulted in that the number of
people on Earth and industrial production together
with environmental pollution would be too high
(Fig. 2.22). Even effective technologies could not
prevent economic decline and population decrease
occurring in the second half of the twenty-first
century. Another prosperity, however, would start
at the end of the twenty-first century.
The most important lessons of the scenarios of
Meadows’ world models published in 1972 and
in 1992 are the following.
1. Utilisation of several natural resources and the
emission of harmful materials that could be
decomposed hardly exceeded the allowable
limits. In case the emission of these materials
and the utilisation of energy will not be
reduced significantly food production, energy
reserves and industrial production will decline
abruptly in the coming decades.
2. This, however, could be avoided if two fundamental changes are realised: (a) political practice and methods are revised extensively that
encourage the population and consumption;
(b) the efficiency of energy utilisation and
material resources is increased significantly.
3. The development of technology and the economy enables even today (in the 1990s) the
realisation of a society capable of existence in
the long term. This society cannot solve its
problems with continuous expansion. And
also this society has to have more respect for
life. The establishment of a society like this
requires the harmonization of short-term and
long-term aims, supply for the entire population, more even distribution and appropriate
life quality—with decreasing amount of
goods—have to be provided. For the above
aims, more is required than productivity alone
or modern technologies, appropriate maturity
and wisdom, people capable of co-operation,
institutes and states are all required.
The authors emphasize that the world faces a
future not determined in advance, there are several options. According to their opinion at that
time, three basic theoretical models are possible.
The first considers that our restricted world
has de facto no limits. Following this model—
according to the authors—collapse is inevitable.
According to the second model, limits exist
and the world is so near them that humans have
no time left to act. This model also predicts
collapse.
The third model views the limits but humans
still have some time to act. Energy, raw material,
money, environmental capacity and human abilities are enough to realise fundamental changes,
the third great revolution of humanity, the environmental revolution. In theory this model could
be wrong as well but the authors believe that
every sign, all global data and computer analyses
support that this theoretical model is likely to be
correct essentially. More recent results of
Meadows et al. (2004) are analysed in Chap. 4
since their statements regarding the operation of
the global society link directly to the current processes and to those expected in the future.
Apart from the dynamic, quantitative system
model of Meadows and her colleagues other
world models were also created. Critics of
Meadows’ models had a role in that the Club of
Rome commissioned Mesarovič and Pestel to
work out a social model with a different view in
the early 1970s. They completed their report in
1974 (Mesarovič and Pestel 1974). Processes in
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System
ysis. The basic question for which answers were
sought was: was time enough for humans to break
the still active processes leading to a global environmental catastrophe and thus to avoid this
catastrophe?
Model version 10 is remarkable in which the
conditions are the following: global birth and
production control, introduction of birth control,
production control, pollution reducing technologies, protection against erosion and the careful
usage of resources by 1995. In such conditions
population could slowly increase to 7.7 billion
people who could live at a good living standard.
Expectable average age would be high,
Environmental contamination would be reduced
gradually from 2030. This state could be maintained till 2100 as well (Fig. 2.21).
Meadows and her colleagues run the model
with the assumption that measures in version 10
will be made only in 2015. Providing the mentioned
conditions so late resulted in that the number of
people on Earth and industrial production together
with environmental pollution would be too high
(Fig. 2.22). Even effective technologies could not
prevent economic decline and population decrease
occurring in the second half of the twenty-first
century. Another prosperity, however, would start
at the end of the twenty-first century.
The most important lessons of the scenarios of
Meadows’ world models published in 1972 and
in 1992 are the following.
1. Utilisation of several natural resources and the
emission of harmful materials that could be
decomposed hardly exceeded the allowable
limits. In case the emission of these materials
and the utilisation of energy will not be
reduced significantly food production, energy
reserves and industrial production will decline
abruptly in the coming decades.
2. This, however, could be avoided if two fundamental changes are realised: (a) political practice and methods are revised extensively that
encourage the population and consumption;
(b) the efficiency of energy utilisation and
material resources is increased significantly.
3. The development of technology and the economy enables even today (in the 1990s) the
realisation of a society capable of existence in
the long term. This society cannot solve its
problems with continuous expansion. And
also this society has to have more respect for
life. The establishment of a society like this
requires the harmonization of short-term and
long-term aims, supply for the entire population, more even distribution and appropriate
life quality—with decreasing amount of
goods—have to be provided. For the above
aims, more is required than productivity alone
or modern technologies, appropriate maturity
and wisdom, people capable of co-operation,
institutes and states are all required.
The authors emphasize that the world faces a
future not determined in advance, there are several options. According to their opinion at that
time, three basic theoretical models are possible.
The first considers that our restricted world
has de facto no limits. Following this model—
according to the authors—collapse is inevitable.
According to the second model, limits exist
and the world is so near them that humans have
no time left to act. This model also predicts
collapse.
The third model views the limits but humans
still have some time to act. Energy, raw material,
money, environmental capacity and human abilities are enough to realise fundamental changes,
the third great revolution of humanity, the environmental revolution. In theory this model could
be wrong as well but the authors believe that
every sign, all global data and computer analyses
support that this theoretical model is likely to be
correct essentially. More recent results of
Meadows et al. (2004) are analysed in Chap. 4
since their statements regarding the operation of
the global society link directly to the current processes and to those expected in the future.
Apart from the dynamic, quantitative system
model of Meadows and her colleagues other
world models were also created. Critics of
Meadows’ models had a role in that the Club of
Rome commissioned Mesarovič and Pestel to
work out a social model with a different view in
the early 1970s. They completed their report in
1974 (Mesarovič and Pestel 1974). Processes in
2 Structure and Operation of Systems, Models of the Global Earth System