193
8.7 Conclusion
Climate change is expected to have deteriorated effected on wheat production in
2030. Under traditional cultivation, wheat self-sufficiency ratio is expected to be
reduced compared to its value in 2017, namely 35%. To increase wheat selfsufficiency ratio, several production alternatives were assessed. Application of deficit irrigation for wheat grown on raised beds in 2030 could raise wheat self-sufficiency
ratio to 50%. Furthermore, application of deficit irrigation and implementing intercropping systems, as well as application of deficit irrigation, implementing intercropping systems and using the saved water from other crops to cultivate more
wheat areas could result in increasing total production by 57 and 68%, respectively
compared to its value under traditional cultivation and that increased wheat selfsufficiency ratio to reach 57 and 59%, respectively. The highest water productivity
values were found under application of deficit irrigation, implementing intercropping systems and use of saved water from two winter crops to increase the cultivated
area of wheat. It is recommended that these production alternatives to be implemented to increase wheat production and its self-sufficiency ratio.
References
Abd El-Zaher SR, Shams AS, Mergheny MM (2013) Effect of intercropping pattern and nitrogen
fertilization on intercropping wheat with tomato. Egypt J Appl Sci 28(9):474–489
Abou-Elela AM (2012) Effect of intercropping system and sowing dates of wheat intercropping
with sugar beet. J Plant Prod 3(12):3101–3116
Abouelenein R, Oweis T, Sherif M, Khalil FA, Abed El-Hafez SA, Karajeh F (2010) A new water
saving and yield increase method for growing berseem on raised seed bed in Egypt. Egypt
J Appl Sci 25(2A):26–41
Academy of Scientific Research and Technology (2016) Road map for the future of wheat
production in Egypt: suggested scenarios to reduce production-consumption gap.
ISBN:978-977-268-710-7
Ahmed AM, Ahmed NR, Khalil SRA (2013) Effect of intercropping wheat on productivity and
quality of some promising sugarcane cultivars. Minia J Agric Res Develop 33(4):557–583
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: guideline for computing
crop water requirements. FAO No 56, Rome
Almeselmani M, Deshmukh PS, Sairam RK (2009) High temperature stress tolerance in wheat
genotypes: role of antioxidant defense enzymes. Acta Agron Hungar 57:1–14
Andersen MK (2005) Competition and complementarily in annual intercrops—the role of plant
available nutrients. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Soil Science, Royal Veterinary and Agricultural
University, Copenhagen, Denmark. Samfundslitteraur Grafik, Frederiksberg
Asseng S, Ewert F, Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat
yields under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 3:827–832
Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P, Rotter RP, Lobell DB, Cammarano D, Kimball BA, Ottman MJ, Wall
GW, White JW (2014) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Chang
5:143–147. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470
Bates BC, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof JP (eds) (2008) Climate change and water. Technical
Paper VI of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, p 210
8 Climate Change and Wheat Self-Sufficiency
8.7 Conclusion
Climate change is expected to have deteriorated effected on wheat production in
2030. Under traditional cultivation, wheat self-sufficiency ratio is expected to be
reduced compared to its value in 2017, namely 35%. To increase wheat selfsufficiency ratio, several production alternatives were assessed. Application of deficit irrigation for wheat grown on raised beds in 2030 could raise wheat self-sufficiency
ratio to 50%. Furthermore, application of deficit irrigation and implementing intercropping systems, as well as application of deficit irrigation, implementing intercropping systems and using the saved water from other crops to cultivate more
wheat areas could result in increasing total production by 57 and 68%, respectively
compared to its value under traditional cultivation and that increased wheat selfsufficiency ratio to reach 57 and 59%, respectively. The highest water productivity
values were found under application of deficit irrigation, implementing intercropping systems and use of saved water from two winter crops to increase the cultivated
area of wheat. It is recommended that these production alternatives to be implemented to increase wheat production and its self-sufficiency ratio.
References
Abd El-Zaher SR, Shams AS, Mergheny MM (2013) Effect of intercropping pattern and nitrogen
fertilization on intercropping wheat with tomato. Egypt J Appl Sci 28(9):474–489
Abou-Elela AM (2012) Effect of intercropping system and sowing dates of wheat intercropping
with sugar beet. J Plant Prod 3(12):3101–3116
Abouelenein R, Oweis T, Sherif M, Khalil FA, Abed El-Hafez SA, Karajeh F (2010) A new water
saving and yield increase method for growing berseem on raised seed bed in Egypt. Egypt
J Appl Sci 25(2A):26–41
Academy of Scientific Research and Technology (2016) Road map for the future of wheat
production in Egypt: suggested scenarios to reduce production-consumption gap.
ISBN:978-977-268-710-7
Ahmed AM, Ahmed NR, Khalil SRA (2013) Effect of intercropping wheat on productivity and
quality of some promising sugarcane cultivars. Minia J Agric Res Develop 33(4):557–583
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: guideline for computing
crop water requirements. FAO No 56, Rome
Almeselmani M, Deshmukh PS, Sairam RK (2009) High temperature stress tolerance in wheat
genotypes: role of antioxidant defense enzymes. Acta Agron Hungar 57:1–14
Andersen MK (2005) Competition and complementarily in annual intercrops—the role of plant
available nutrients. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Soil Science, Royal Veterinary and Agricultural
University, Copenhagen, Denmark. Samfundslitteraur Grafik, Frederiksberg
Asseng S, Ewert F, Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat
yields under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 3:827–832
Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P, Rotter RP, Lobell DB, Cammarano D, Kimball BA, Ottman MJ, Wall
GW, White JW (2014) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Chang
5:143–147. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470
Bates BC, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof JP (eds) (2008) Climate change and water. Technical
Paper VI of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, p 210
8 Climate Change and Wheat Self-Sufficiency