743
10 or 11 billion, we can’t predict which, 10, or 11. (Some demographers have predicted 13 billion.) With few countries, regions, states, or even cities and communities actually ascribing to a uniform population policy, and with economists in every
nation continuing to fuel principles of essential growth, the earlier referenced
Ehrlich/Holdren I=PAT equation
16
has never been more relevant to ecological and
moral principles of uncertainty. It is within the inextricable links defining corporate
and consumer consumption, that data swarms have rendered the time frame, particularly one as vague as “gradually” unfit for any formulaic confidence. It has
become, scientifically, a wholly useless marker of change.
Next, “young people.” Here the problems are magnified, first, by the purchasing
power, lack of experience, lack of suffering, absence of altruistic loyalty, fierce
resistance (most studies show) to any level of authority intruding on self-centered
feelings, and the general sense of rebellion, the very wont of which (power of the
purse, etc.) renders this class of individuals most vulnerable, and most in need of the
stability that, in fact, does not exist.
We can easily formulate the position that social media, this “strength in numbers” proposition, is actually the cause of our problems, along with “the human
brain” and all of its alleged marvelous wonders, solutions, and the like. Solutions to
our own numbers, our own brain, our own presence: Let us be clear.
As for this “indomitable human spirit,” of course we all have some sense of it in
ourselves, but the hard inward-dwelling message is there dangled before our eyes,
our conscience, the apperceptive faculties which give our consciousness a sense of
ecological remorse. Such spirit is not necessarily an answer to anything. Our species
may pride itself with regard to certain ancestral, current, and hoped-for proclivities
that side-step every justified premonition and desperate finale. But it is probably
irresponsible to flatly reject the mirror images, everywhere around us, of Doomsday.
All of the stanchions are giving way. Even John Muir has lost his luster in an era that
suddenly finds human words and mottos, albeit steeped in racism, sexism, or some
other vile tinge, more palpable, than large blocks of protected earth. Every protagonist is caught up in a shadow that ranges powerfully across its population level of
embrace or abandonment.
Within 4 1/2 months from Dame Goodall’s well-seasoned recommendations for
optimism at the Davos Economic Forum (January 22, 2020) she had a few other
(contrary) things to say about that, best captured in a headline from The Guardian:
“Jane Goodall: humanity is finished if it fails to adapt after Covid-19”
17
(Fig. 81.3).
Continuum Books, New York, 1998, the chapter, “Demographic Madness.”
16 See http://web.mit.edu/2.813/www/Class%20Slides%202008/IPAT%20Eq.pdf.
17 The Guardian, by Fiona Harvey, June 3, 2020, in which she declared, “If we do not do things
differently, we are finished. We can’t go on very much longer like this.” https://www.theguardian.
com/science/2020/jun/03/jane-goodall-humanity-is-finished-if-it-fails-to-adapt-after-covid-19,
Accessed June 10, 2020.
81.3 The Optimism Paradox
10 or 11 billion, we can’t predict which, 10, or 11. (Some demographers have predicted 13 billion.) With few countries, regions, states, or even cities and communities actually ascribing to a uniform population policy, and with economists in every
nation continuing to fuel principles of essential growth, the earlier referenced
Ehrlich/Holdren I=PAT equation
16
has never been more relevant to ecological and
moral principles of uncertainty. It is within the inextricable links defining corporate
and consumer consumption, that data swarms have rendered the time frame, particularly one as vague as “gradually” unfit for any formulaic confidence. It has
become, scientifically, a wholly useless marker of change.
Next, “young people.” Here the problems are magnified, first, by the purchasing
power, lack of experience, lack of suffering, absence of altruistic loyalty, fierce
resistance (most studies show) to any level of authority intruding on self-centered
feelings, and the general sense of rebellion, the very wont of which (power of the
purse, etc.) renders this class of individuals most vulnerable, and most in need of the
stability that, in fact, does not exist.
We can easily formulate the position that social media, this “strength in numbers” proposition, is actually the cause of our problems, along with “the human
brain” and all of its alleged marvelous wonders, solutions, and the like. Solutions to
our own numbers, our own brain, our own presence: Let us be clear.
As for this “indomitable human spirit,” of course we all have some sense of it in
ourselves, but the hard inward-dwelling message is there dangled before our eyes,
our conscience, the apperceptive faculties which give our consciousness a sense of
ecological remorse. Such spirit is not necessarily an answer to anything. Our species
may pride itself with regard to certain ancestral, current, and hoped-for proclivities
that side-step every justified premonition and desperate finale. But it is probably
irresponsible to flatly reject the mirror images, everywhere around us, of Doomsday.
All of the stanchions are giving way. Even John Muir has lost his luster in an era that
suddenly finds human words and mottos, albeit steeped in racism, sexism, or some
other vile tinge, more palpable, than large blocks of protected earth. Every protagonist is caught up in a shadow that ranges powerfully across its population level of
embrace or abandonment.
Within 4 1/2 months from Dame Goodall’s well-seasoned recommendations for
optimism at the Davos Economic Forum (January 22, 2020) she had a few other
(contrary) things to say about that, best captured in a headline from The Guardian:
“Jane Goodall: humanity is finished if it fails to adapt after Covid-19”
17
(Fig. 81.3).
Continuum Books, New York, 1998, the chapter, “Demographic Madness.”
16 See http://web.mit.edu/2.813/www/Class%20Slides%202008/IPAT%20Eq.pdf.
17 The Guardian, by Fiona Harvey, June 3, 2020, in which she declared, “If we do not do things
differently, we are finished. We can’t go on very much longer like this.” https://www.theguardian.
com/science/2020/jun/03/jane-goodall-humanity-is-finished-if-it-fails-to-adapt-after-covid-19,
Accessed June 10, 2020.
81.3 The Optimism Paradox