organisms decomposed anaerobically. But in the geological instant from the Industrial Revolution to present, enormous quantities of carbon have been released into
the atmosphere threatening to create a hothouse planet. The elevation of near-term
economic incentives far above the value of ecosystem services, which humans rely
on, and climate considerations, in which humans occupy a surprisingly narrow niche
(Xu et al. 2020), has created our age’s most critical “contradiction.” Essential
services that nature provides include air production, sustaining air quality, freshwater availability and distribution, wood fuel, wild food production, sinks for carbon
emissions, nutrient cycling and soil conditioning, pollination, coastal storm surge
protection, biological pest control, plant-based medicines, and the physical and
psychological benefits of natural spaces.
Climate models have been remarkably accurate since the early 1970s (Hausfather
et al. 2020). Hence, the deployment of science and reason has not only accurately
described the threat for 50 years, but provided a variety of strategies likely to
mitigate risks (Riahi et al. 2017). Yet responses by the major carbon emitting nations
have been grossly inadequate, hampered by a suite of countervailing forces. First,
the tools of reason and science are hard to bring into play when they conflict with the
interests of power structures. But proposed climate solutions directly threaten the
lucrative economic models of the energy sector and its many interconnected industries, which often exert outsized influence over government policies (Gilens and
Page 2014). Second, science does not deal in certainties, opening the door for
“merchants of doubt” to sow confusion and craft messaging that impedes
evidence-based solutions (Oreskes and Conway 2010). Third, GCC is a “tragedy
of the commons” problem (Hardin 1968). Individual countries are motivated to act
self-interestedly with respect to the shared atmosphere, and may avoid acting for the
common good unless all major polluters follow suit in a verifiable manner with
sanctions for moochers. Fourth, the large expenditures of monetary and political
capital required at present to mitigate damage will not show observable dividends for
decades (Samset et al. 2020). One effect is that major factors influencing carbon
emissions remain heavily biased to their continued use. For example, despite
decades of convincing evidence for GCC, fossil fuels remain grossly underpriced.
A 2019 International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper estimated global fossil
fuels subsidies at US$5.2 trillion in 2017, which represents 6.5% of global gross
domestic product (Coady et al. 2019).
16.1.1 Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire
The 2015 Paris Agreement represents the latest global effort to address greenhouse
gas emissions. While it is promising that most of the 196 member countries have
ratified the accord, few have hit climate targets and the lack of enforcement mechanisms, suggests that at least for the near future, global mitigation efforts will remain
patchy at best. The most aspirational goal of limiting warming to 1.5
C above
pre-industrial levels (Relative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 1.9) is essentially
16 Symbiosis in a Rapidly Changing World
265
the atmosphere threatening to create a hothouse planet. The elevation of near-term
economic incentives far above the value of ecosystem services, which humans rely
on, and climate considerations, in which humans occupy a surprisingly narrow niche
(Xu et al. 2020), has created our age’s most critical “contradiction.” Essential
services that nature provides include air production, sustaining air quality, freshwater availability and distribution, wood fuel, wild food production, sinks for carbon
emissions, nutrient cycling and soil conditioning, pollination, coastal storm surge
protection, biological pest control, plant-based medicines, and the physical and
psychological benefits of natural spaces.
Climate models have been remarkably accurate since the early 1970s (Hausfather
et al. 2020). Hence, the deployment of science and reason has not only accurately
described the threat for 50 years, but provided a variety of strategies likely to
mitigate risks (Riahi et al. 2017). Yet responses by the major carbon emitting nations
have been grossly inadequate, hampered by a suite of countervailing forces. First,
the tools of reason and science are hard to bring into play when they conflict with the
interests of power structures. But proposed climate solutions directly threaten the
lucrative economic models of the energy sector and its many interconnected industries, which often exert outsized influence over government policies (Gilens and
Page 2014). Second, science does not deal in certainties, opening the door for
“merchants of doubt” to sow confusion and craft messaging that impedes
evidence-based solutions (Oreskes and Conway 2010). Third, GCC is a “tragedy
of the commons” problem (Hardin 1968). Individual countries are motivated to act
self-interestedly with respect to the shared atmosphere, and may avoid acting for the
common good unless all major polluters follow suit in a verifiable manner with
sanctions for moochers. Fourth, the large expenditures of monetary and political
capital required at present to mitigate damage will not show observable dividends for
decades (Samset et al. 2020). One effect is that major factors influencing carbon
emissions remain heavily biased to their continued use. For example, despite
decades of convincing evidence for GCC, fossil fuels remain grossly underpriced.
A 2019 International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper estimated global fossil
fuels subsidies at US$5.2 trillion in 2017, which represents 6.5% of global gross
domestic product (Coady et al. 2019).
16.1.1 Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire
The 2015 Paris Agreement represents the latest global effort to address greenhouse
gas emissions. While it is promising that most of the 196 member countries have
ratified the accord, few have hit climate targets and the lack of enforcement mechanisms, suggests that at least for the near future, global mitigation efforts will remain
patchy at best. The most aspirational goal of limiting warming to 1.5
C above
pre-industrial levels (Relative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 1.9) is essentially
16 Symbiosis in a Rapidly Changing World
265