488
explained, when the remaining trees are extremely scarce. Thus, the local provenance can be replaced (or enriched) by other provenances from the same OGMU.
18.3 Climate Change in Argentina
Global climate change, resulting from the greenhouse effect, has become an
unavoidable determining factor in tree cultivation. In Argentina, the most recent
information in this regard corresponds to the Third National Communication to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, prepared by the Center
for Research on the Sea and the Atmosphere (CIMA 2015). Between 1960 and
2010, in most of non-Patagonian continental Argentina, there was an increment in
average temperature of up to 0.5 °C, which represents a lower increase than the
world average in continental regions, probably due to the oceanic conditions of the
South American extreme. Only in some places in the center of the country did a
mean temperature decrement occur, also up to 0.5 °C. In the Patagonian region the
increase was greater, surpassing in some places 1 °C. In this region, the maximum
temperature increased more than the minimum, contrary to what happened in the
rest of the country.
For the same period, precipitation increased in almost the entire Argentina, with
the largest absolute increments exceeding 200 mm per year in the east of the country, but with a greater relative increase in some semi-arid areas. Conversely, the
level of precipitation has decreased in the Patagonian Andes. Beyond average volumes, in general the intensity and frequency of precipitation have also increased in
almost the whole country, although in the northern Andean Patagonia and in sectors
of the Puna periods without precipitation have become longer.
For the climate forecast, the period 1981–2005 was taken as a reference, with a
horizon for the near future (2015–2039) and another for the distant future
(2075–2099). For the country as a whole, 42 models of the CMIP5 base of climate
scenarios were averaged. The average temperature would increase throughout
Argentina for both futures, with values between 0.5 °C and 1 °C in almost the entire
country (Fig. 18.1). The maximum increase would occur in the northwest, reaching
over 3.5 °C in the most severe scenario.
Regarding precipitation, the forecasted changes are not very large, with a tendency to increase in the north and east of Argentina between 10% and 20% depending on the scenario and the future and a trend toward decrease in Patagonia and
Andean Patagonia (with the exception of Tierra del Fuego), also between 10% and
20% (Fig. 18.2).
In addition to this general projection for the whole of Argentina, there are
regional projections for which a little more detail and reliability are achieved, since
they are based on models that are better suited to locally observed climates.
M. J. Pastorino et al.
explained, when the remaining trees are extremely scarce. Thus, the local provenance can be replaced (or enriched) by other provenances from the same OGMU.
18.3 Climate Change in Argentina
Global climate change, resulting from the greenhouse effect, has become an
unavoidable determining factor in tree cultivation. In Argentina, the most recent
information in this regard corresponds to the Third National Communication to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, prepared by the Center
for Research on the Sea and the Atmosphere (CIMA 2015). Between 1960 and
2010, in most of non-Patagonian continental Argentina, there was an increment in
average temperature of up to 0.5 °C, which represents a lower increase than the
world average in continental regions, probably due to the oceanic conditions of the
South American extreme. Only in some places in the center of the country did a
mean temperature decrement occur, also up to 0.5 °C. In the Patagonian region the
increase was greater, surpassing in some places 1 °C. In this region, the maximum
temperature increased more than the minimum, contrary to what happened in the
rest of the country.
For the same period, precipitation increased in almost the entire Argentina, with
the largest absolute increments exceeding 200 mm per year in the east of the country, but with a greater relative increase in some semi-arid areas. Conversely, the
level of precipitation has decreased in the Patagonian Andes. Beyond average volumes, in general the intensity and frequency of precipitation have also increased in
almost the whole country, although in the northern Andean Patagonia and in sectors
of the Puna periods without precipitation have become longer.
For the climate forecast, the period 1981–2005 was taken as a reference, with a
horizon for the near future (2015–2039) and another for the distant future
(2075–2099). For the country as a whole, 42 models of the CMIP5 base of climate
scenarios were averaged. The average temperature would increase throughout
Argentina for both futures, with values between 0.5 °C and 1 °C in almost the entire
country (Fig. 18.1). The maximum increase would occur in the northwest, reaching
over 3.5 °C in the most severe scenario.
Regarding precipitation, the forecasted changes are not very large, with a tendency to increase in the north and east of Argentina between 10% and 20% depending on the scenario and the future and a trend toward decrease in Patagonia and
Andean Patagonia (with the exception of Tierra del Fuego), also between 10% and
20% (Fig. 18.2).
In addition to this general projection for the whole of Argentina, there are
regional projections for which a little more detail and reliability are achieved, since
they are based on models that are better suited to locally observed climates.
M. J. Pastorino et al.