184 Ecology and Applied Environmental Science
limited accuracy of this conclusion reflects the existing uncertainty in the
parameters and calculations. In relation to predictions about the rest of the
climatic changes (rainfall, storms etc.) the uncertainty is even greater and
the same is true for predictions about the distribution of changes in various
regions of the planet. It is considered, though, that atmospheric precipitations (rain, snow, dew etc.) will increase as a whole but their distribution
will become more uneven and that the temperature will rise more in places
and seasons (high latitudes, winters) where it is lower, than where (equator,
summers) it is higher.
The climatic parameters’ changes occur gradually and with a delay in relation to the greenhouse gases’ increase. Positive and negative feedback will
play an important role; feedback includes future atmospheric concentration
of water vapour which is a powerful greenhouse gas, the complex impact of
cloud radiation, the ocean circulation that plays a large part in determining climate because of large heat capacity and heat circulation as well as
ice-albedo because ice and snow are powerful reflectors of solar radiation.
The completion of the parameters’ response to a given increase probably
requires some decades, because a part of the additional heat is absorbed
by the ocean, and the slow process of its warming delays the final warming of the atmosphere. Thus the climatic system takes a long time to reach
an equilibrium and there is always a significant difference between the
observed climatic alteration (temporary) and the one to which the system
is subjected (permanent, since it corresponds to equilibrium) at the same
moment in time. For example, the planet is subjected to a temperature
increase of 0.3–1.9°C if the greenhouse gases remain stable at 1990 values.
Respectively, the temperature change that will be observed at the date of
the equivalent CO 2 doubling (a total rise of 1.5–4.5°C for the state of equilibrium) will range between 0.5 and 2.5°C. Of course, this equilibrium is
theoretical because each new increase of the gases entails alterations. For
the climatic system to achieve equilibrium, the greenhouse gases’ concentrations should be stabilized and sufficient time should pass so that the
warming procedure of the pair sea-atmosphere may be completed.
9.4.4 Possible impacts of climatic changes
Temperature increase is only one of the impacts that will follow a potential
warming of the planet. It is true that the alteration will be gradual, but in
a pace unprecedented for geological givens. The temperature increase, but
even more so the alterations of the rest of climatic parameters, especially that
of the hydrological cycle, will have a dissimilar distribution on a global level.
One of the most direct and large impacts is the increase of violent meteorological phenomena both in intensity and frequency. The accumulation of
great quantities of energy in the troposphere, due to trapping of radiation,
will be defused by typhoons, gales, storms etc. The economic side of these
limited accuracy of this conclusion reflects the existing uncertainty in the
parameters and calculations. In relation to predictions about the rest of the
climatic changes (rainfall, storms etc.) the uncertainty is even greater and
the same is true for predictions about the distribution of changes in various
regions of the planet. It is considered, though, that atmospheric precipitations (rain, snow, dew etc.) will increase as a whole but their distribution
will become more uneven and that the temperature will rise more in places
and seasons (high latitudes, winters) where it is lower, than where (equator,
summers) it is higher.
The climatic parameters’ changes occur gradually and with a delay in relation to the greenhouse gases’ increase. Positive and negative feedback will
play an important role; feedback includes future atmospheric concentration
of water vapour which is a powerful greenhouse gas, the complex impact of
cloud radiation, the ocean circulation that plays a large part in determining climate because of large heat capacity and heat circulation as well as
ice-albedo because ice and snow are powerful reflectors of solar radiation.
The completion of the parameters’ response to a given increase probably
requires some decades, because a part of the additional heat is absorbed
by the ocean, and the slow process of its warming delays the final warming of the atmosphere. Thus the climatic system takes a long time to reach
an equilibrium and there is always a significant difference between the
observed climatic alteration (temporary) and the one to which the system
is subjected (permanent, since it corresponds to equilibrium) at the same
moment in time. For example, the planet is subjected to a temperature
increase of 0.3–1.9°C if the greenhouse gases remain stable at 1990 values.
Respectively, the temperature change that will be observed at the date of
the equivalent CO 2 doubling (a total rise of 1.5–4.5°C for the state of equilibrium) will range between 0.5 and 2.5°C. Of course, this equilibrium is
theoretical because each new increase of the gases entails alterations. For
the climatic system to achieve equilibrium, the greenhouse gases’ concentrations should be stabilized and sufficient time should pass so that the
warming procedure of the pair sea-atmosphere may be completed.
9.4.4 Possible impacts of climatic changes
Temperature increase is only one of the impacts that will follow a potential
warming of the planet. It is true that the alteration will be gradual, but in
a pace unprecedented for geological givens. The temperature increase, but
even more so the alterations of the rest of climatic parameters, especially that
of the hydrological cycle, will have a dissimilar distribution on a global level.
One of the most direct and large impacts is the increase of violent meteorological phenomena both in intensity and frequency. The accumulation of
great quantities of energy in the troposphere, due to trapping of radiation,
will be defused by typhoons, gales, storms etc. The economic side of these