Jelesnianski (1972) has calculated the open coast surge for
Hurricane Camille with a full two-dimensional mathematical model. The
maximum surge envelope along the coast, based on computations from this
model, is shown in Figure 3-56 where the zéro distance corresponds to
the point of landfall of the hurricane eye. This figure shows that
the peak surge estimated by this method is about 25+ feet MSL.
Thus, by three independent estimâtes, it has been found that the peak
surge is about 25 feet MSL which corresponds approximately to that
observed (U.S. Geological Survey) at Pass Christian, Mississippi of
24.2 feet MSL. It would be expected that a slightly higher peak water
élévation occurred because Pass Christian is located a few miles left of
the position where the maximum winds made landfall.
It is rare that such a close agreement is found when estimating the
peak surge with these dissimilar models. Normally, because of the
différence in these prédictive schemes, it can be expected that peak
surge estimâtes may deviate by as much as 25 percent. For wellformulated schemes properly applied, there is usually a trade-ôff
between reliability of the estimate and the computational effort.
*************************************
(c) Predicting Surge for Storms other than Hurricanes.
Although the basic équations for water motion in response to atmospheric
stresses are equally valid for nonhurricane tropical and extratropical
storms, the structures of these storms are not nearly so simple as that
of a hurricane. Because the storms display much greater variability in
structure, it is difficult to dérivé a proper wind field. Moreover, no
System of classifying these storms by parameters has been developed
similar to hurricane classification by such parameters as radius to
maximum winds, forward motion of the storm center, and central pressure.
Criteria however hâve been established for a Standard Project Northeaster for the New England coast north of Cape Cod as given by Peterson
and Goodyear (1964). Spécifie standard-project storms other than hurricanes are not présently available for other Coastal locations. Estimâtes
of design-storm wind fields can be made by meteorologists working directly
with climatological weather maps, and by use of statistical wind records
on land and assuming that they blow toward shore for a significant duration over a long, straight line fetch.
Once the wind field is determined, estimation of the storm surge may
e e ermine
y methods based on the complété basic formulas or the quasistatic method given. The nomogram method cannot be used, since this scheme
is based on the hurricane parameters.
Stoyi Surge in Enclosed Basins. An example of an incline!
water
by “ind shearin8 stresses over an enclosed body of
the Lwthï
durl"« Passa8e °f the hurricane of 26-27 August 1949 over
inclined b^the” ^
Okeechobee, Florida. After the lake level «as
y
e Wind, the wind direction shifted 180° in 3 hours, resultmg
3-126
Hurricane Camille with a full two-dimensional mathematical model. The
maximum surge envelope along the coast, based on computations from this
model, is shown in Figure 3-56 where the zéro distance corresponds to
the point of landfall of the hurricane eye. This figure shows that
the peak surge estimated by this method is about 25+ feet MSL.
Thus, by three independent estimâtes, it has been found that the peak
surge is about 25 feet MSL which corresponds approximately to that
observed (U.S. Geological Survey) at Pass Christian, Mississippi of
24.2 feet MSL. It would be expected that a slightly higher peak water
élévation occurred because Pass Christian is located a few miles left of
the position where the maximum winds made landfall.
It is rare that such a close agreement is found when estimating the
peak surge with these dissimilar models. Normally, because of the
différence in these prédictive schemes, it can be expected that peak
surge estimâtes may deviate by as much as 25 percent. For wellformulated schemes properly applied, there is usually a trade-ôff
between reliability of the estimate and the computational effort.
*************************************
(c) Predicting Surge for Storms other than Hurricanes.
Although the basic équations for water motion in response to atmospheric
stresses are equally valid for nonhurricane tropical and extratropical
storms, the structures of these storms are not nearly so simple as that
of a hurricane. Because the storms display much greater variability in
structure, it is difficult to dérivé a proper wind field. Moreover, no
System of classifying these storms by parameters has been developed
similar to hurricane classification by such parameters as radius to
maximum winds, forward motion of the storm center, and central pressure.
Criteria however hâve been established for a Standard Project Northeaster for the New England coast north of Cape Cod as given by Peterson
and Goodyear (1964). Spécifie standard-project storms other than hurricanes are not présently available for other Coastal locations. Estimâtes
of design-storm wind fields can be made by meteorologists working directly
with climatological weather maps, and by use of statistical wind records
on land and assuming that they blow toward shore for a significant duration over a long, straight line fetch.
Once the wind field is determined, estimation of the storm surge may
e e ermine
y methods based on the complété basic formulas or the quasistatic method given. The nomogram method cannot be used, since this scheme
is based on the hurricane parameters.
Stoyi Surge in Enclosed Basins. An example of an incline!
water
by “ind shearin8 stresses over an enclosed body of
the Lwthï
durl"« Passa8e °f the hurricane of 26-27 August 1949 over
inclined b^the” ^
Okeechobee, Florida. After the lake level «as
y
e Wind, the wind direction shifted 180° in 3 hours, resultmg
3-126