¥ a Pilot Ocean Monitoring Study (POMS); and
¥ a proposed conference on the impact of climate
on global change.
The latter eventually became the JSC/CCCO Study
Conference on Large Scale Oceanographic Experiments in the WCRP, which was held in Tokyo in
May 1982, with Allan Robinson in the chair.
Taking its lead from COG and adopting an
even wider view, SCOR decided, in November
1978, to establish an interdisciplinary Committee
on Climatic Change and the Oceans with Roger
Revelle as chairman and invited the IOC to cosponsor the committee. This the IOC agreed to do
early in 1979. Meanwhile, WMO and JOC were
reaching a similar conclusion; that an international
mechanism was needed to determine to what
extent climate could be predicted and the extent of
anthropogenic influence on climate. The mechanism was to be the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), co-sponsored by WMO and
ICSU and dealing with time scales from several
weeks to decades. The agreement to establish the
WCRP was signed by WMO and ICSU in October
and November 1979, and included the establishment of the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) to
oversee the programme. This, in effect, metamorphosed GARP into the WCRP.
By the end of 1979, the ocean community
considered the situation very promising for the
development of the oceanographic aspects of the
WCRP. There was widespread interest in the
large-scale circulation of the ocean. At a critical
meeting in Miami in November to consider a Pilot
Ocean Monitoring Study, Carl Wunsch made a
convincing scientific case for a global ocean circulation experiment. The meeting proposed moving
forward with the development of observational
techniques and the design of networks, while
simultaneously considering the feasibility and
design of global experiments. This was a bold
decision, relying on significant improvements in
satellite sensors. The recently flown (1978) SEASAT mission gave grounds for optimism since in
its short life it had demonstrated a much-improved
precision in altimeter measurement of sea surface
topography. The year-on-year trend of increasing
computer power provided justification for expectation that the very large computer resources
needed for eddy-resolving ocean models would
soon be available.
The first meeting of CCCO was held immediately following the POMS meeting, also in Miami.
That meeting asked the CCCO panel on ‘Theory
and Modelling of Ocean Dynamics Relating to
Problems of Climate Research’ and the CCCO/JSC
Liaison Panel to take the lead on a global ocean
circulation experiment (soon to be dubbed
WOCE). It was the latter that moved the WOCE
concept through the international scientific coordination bodies during 1980 and early 1981.
As well as paving the way for the development
of WOCE, the Panel, following suggestions from
the POMS meeting, instituted the CAGE feasibility study under the leadership of Fred Dobson
(Dobson et al., 1982). This was to consider the
feasibility of a detailed study of the heat budget in
a ‘cage’ over and in the North Atlantic ocean on a
climatological time scale aiming for an estimate of
oceanic meridional heat transport with an accuracy of 20%. The report provides valuable insights
into the problems involved in the direct measurement of the transport, in estimates made through
combination of inward radiation and flux divergence in the atmosphere, and those from area
integrals of the sea surface heat flux.
Over the period 1979–81 CCCO had before
it proposals for CAGE, WOCE and the Soviet
SECTIONS Programme. Each would, if they could
be implemented in full, entrain the resource of
many laboratories. SECTIONS, though strongly
pressed by Soviet scientists at meetings, did not
find favour with the rest of the community. The
programme assumed a concentration on a number
of areas known as ‘energetically active zones’ such
as the Gulf Stream and Greenland–Iceland–UK
Gap. Other scientists believed that this intensive
study of specific areas was unlikely to yield the scientific return to match the effort needed. CAGE,
in the end, fell short of its overall goal through the
inability to measure the horizontal fluxes across
the atmospheric boundaries. Therefore, as a combined oceanographic and meteorological experiment it was felt to be premature. WOCE, on the
other hand, subsumed much of the oceanographic
thinking of CAGE and moved for the first time
from a regional to a global view of ocean dynamics.
The significance of the POMS deliberations for
the study and prediction of climate variability can
be clearly recognized in the subsequent programmes that benefited from new and improved
methods for measuring the ocean. WOCE and
SECTION 1 THE OCEAN AND CLIMATE
34
¥ a proposed conference on the impact of climate
on global change.
The latter eventually became the JSC/CCCO Study
Conference on Large Scale Oceanographic Experiments in the WCRP, which was held in Tokyo in
May 1982, with Allan Robinson in the chair.
Taking its lead from COG and adopting an
even wider view, SCOR decided, in November
1978, to establish an interdisciplinary Committee
on Climatic Change and the Oceans with Roger
Revelle as chairman and invited the IOC to cosponsor the committee. This the IOC agreed to do
early in 1979. Meanwhile, WMO and JOC were
reaching a similar conclusion; that an international
mechanism was needed to determine to what
extent climate could be predicted and the extent of
anthropogenic influence on climate. The mechanism was to be the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), co-sponsored by WMO and
ICSU and dealing with time scales from several
weeks to decades. The agreement to establish the
WCRP was signed by WMO and ICSU in October
and November 1979, and included the establishment of the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) to
oversee the programme. This, in effect, metamorphosed GARP into the WCRP.
By the end of 1979, the ocean community
considered the situation very promising for the
development of the oceanographic aspects of the
WCRP. There was widespread interest in the
large-scale circulation of the ocean. At a critical
meeting in Miami in November to consider a Pilot
Ocean Monitoring Study, Carl Wunsch made a
convincing scientific case for a global ocean circulation experiment. The meeting proposed moving
forward with the development of observational
techniques and the design of networks, while
simultaneously considering the feasibility and
design of global experiments. This was a bold
decision, relying on significant improvements in
satellite sensors. The recently flown (1978) SEASAT mission gave grounds for optimism since in
its short life it had demonstrated a much-improved
precision in altimeter measurement of sea surface
topography. The year-on-year trend of increasing
computer power provided justification for expectation that the very large computer resources
needed for eddy-resolving ocean models would
soon be available.
The first meeting of CCCO was held immediately following the POMS meeting, also in Miami.
That meeting asked the CCCO panel on ‘Theory
and Modelling of Ocean Dynamics Relating to
Problems of Climate Research’ and the CCCO/JSC
Liaison Panel to take the lead on a global ocean
circulation experiment (soon to be dubbed
WOCE). It was the latter that moved the WOCE
concept through the international scientific coordination bodies during 1980 and early 1981.
As well as paving the way for the development
of WOCE, the Panel, following suggestions from
the POMS meeting, instituted the CAGE feasibility study under the leadership of Fred Dobson
(Dobson et al., 1982). This was to consider the
feasibility of a detailed study of the heat budget in
a ‘cage’ over and in the North Atlantic ocean on a
climatological time scale aiming for an estimate of
oceanic meridional heat transport with an accuracy of 20%. The report provides valuable insights
into the problems involved in the direct measurement of the transport, in estimates made through
combination of inward radiation and flux divergence in the atmosphere, and those from area
integrals of the sea surface heat flux.
Over the period 1979–81 CCCO had before
it proposals for CAGE, WOCE and the Soviet
SECTIONS Programme. Each would, if they could
be implemented in full, entrain the resource of
many laboratories. SECTIONS, though strongly
pressed by Soviet scientists at meetings, did not
find favour with the rest of the community. The
programme assumed a concentration on a number
of areas known as ‘energetically active zones’ such
as the Gulf Stream and Greenland–Iceland–UK
Gap. Other scientists believed that this intensive
study of specific areas was unlikely to yield the scientific return to match the effort needed. CAGE,
in the end, fell short of its overall goal through the
inability to measure the horizontal fluxes across
the atmospheric boundaries. Therefore, as a combined oceanographic and meteorological experiment it was felt to be premature. WOCE, on the
other hand, subsumed much of the oceanographic
thinking of CAGE and moved for the first time
from a regional to a global view of ocean dynamics.
The significance of the POMS deliberations for
the study and prediction of climate variability can
be clearly recognized in the subsequent programmes that benefited from new and improved
methods for measuring the ocean. WOCE and
SECTION 1 THE OCEAN AND CLIMATE
34