TOWARD I'SDERSTAKDING ECOSYSTEMS
33
foliage units and finally sum the entire array of plants. Greater difficulties enme when one must describe the geometry of complex natural
canopied Nevertheless this can be done.
Thirdly, one must begin to formulate and test fairly complex models.
It is quite reasonable to begin by making models which are quite hypothetical and which have not too much resemblance to .the real plant
community and leaf structure. One can formulate several mathematical
model8 which will indeed enconipass all possible actual leaf arrangements. By doing this one can test the sensitivity of the system by varying the leaf angle, leaf size, or leaf density and estimating just how
much difference this will make to the end results. The end results are
to be found in the physiology which has an assumed relationship to the
leaf ternperature and climate, One might find that the production of
variou& foliage arrangements is very insensitive to certain basic parameters, ouch as leaf orientation, and much more sensitive to other factors, such as the availability of water. If the input, such as the functional
relationships assumed for the physiology, is poor then the results will
have little resemblance to reality. The input would need to be reformulated acd the system analyzed once again.
Finally one must constantly check the theoretical model against field
observ&tions. This is where the basic methodology suggested here is of
fundamental importance. Doing certain model building, based on much
knowlodge which is already available, and computing inferences, it is
possible to carry out field measurements with very specific factors in
mind. 3ne is now prepared to test a given hypothesis or to test certain
initial essumptions. It is now possible to look for special causes and
effects. This cannot be overemphasized. One must be willing to formulate moclels, carry out detailed computations from initial causes to final
events and then go into the field to set up well-designed experiments
to confirm or deny the relationships. Field observations are tremendously important, but now it is time to do the basic theoretical homework before extensive field observations are made.
Ecolugy must have a strong theoretical and analytical basis before
it can advance significantly. An empirical science has severe limitations
and som it0 advancement is arrested by its own complexity. This is a
plea to ecologists to develop a new theoretical basis for various aspects
of their science. A few examples are given in this paper and many more
copld have been given. One day ecology will be the most challenging
of all theoretical disciplines. It is apparent that theoretical ecology is
necessary and it is only a matter of time before this will be realised.
Techniqiles are available today for the beginnings of the enormously
exciting field of theoretical ecology.
33
foliage units and finally sum the entire array of plants. Greater difficulties enme when one must describe the geometry of complex natural
canopied Nevertheless this can be done.
Thirdly, one must begin to formulate and test fairly complex models.
It is quite reasonable to begin by making models which are quite hypothetical and which have not too much resemblance to .the real plant
community and leaf structure. One can formulate several mathematical
model8 which will indeed enconipass all possible actual leaf arrangements. By doing this one can test the sensitivity of the system by varying the leaf angle, leaf size, or leaf density and estimating just how
much difference this will make to the end results. The end results are
to be found in the physiology which has an assumed relationship to the
leaf ternperature and climate, One might find that the production of
variou& foliage arrangements is very insensitive to certain basic parameters, ouch as leaf orientation, and much more sensitive to other factors, such as the availability of water. If the input, such as the functional
relationships assumed for the physiology, is poor then the results will
have little resemblance to reality. The input would need to be reformulated acd the system analyzed once again.
Finally one must constantly check the theoretical model against field
observ&tions. This is where the basic methodology suggested here is of
fundamental importance. Doing certain model building, based on much
knowlodge which is already available, and computing inferences, it is
possible to carry out field measurements with very specific factors in
mind. 3ne is now prepared to test a given hypothesis or to test certain
initial essumptions. It is now possible to look for special causes and
effects. This cannot be overemphasized. One must be willing to formulate moclels, carry out detailed computations from initial causes to final
events and then go into the field to set up well-designed experiments
to confirm or deny the relationships. Field observations are tremendously important, but now it is time to do the basic theoretical homework before extensive field observations are made.
Ecolugy must have a strong theoretical and analytical basis before
it can advance significantly. An empirical science has severe limitations
and som it0 advancement is arrested by its own complexity. This is a
plea to ecologists to develop a new theoretical basis for various aspects
of their science. A few examples are given in this paper and many more
copld have been given. One day ecology will be the most challenging
of all theoretical disciplines. It is apparent that theoretical ecology is
necessary and it is only a matter of time before this will be realised.
Techniqiles are available today for the beginnings of the enormously
exciting field of theoretical ecology.