0
50
100
0
2 0 0
4 0 0
Distance from the coast /km
% Global Population
Figure 1 Population versus
distance from the coast
estimated for 1994 based
on analysis of the Gridded
Population of the World
Dataset, Version 1
coastal areas which will interact adversely with these other trends.
This article examines the likely implications of climate change for coastal areas
in the 21st century, with a main emphasis on sea-level rise, and how we can
systematically analyse the potential impacts and response options. First,
sea-level rise and climate change in coastal areas are considered to indicate the
likely magnitude of change. Second, impact and vulnerability analyses are
considered, including some examples of potential impacts. Third, possible
responses are considered, with an emphasis on adaptation to sea-level rise and
climate change. Last, the future needs to improve impact and vulnerability
assessment are considered.
2 Sea-level Rise and Climate Change in Coastal Areas
Sea-level Rise
Sea levels have fluctuated throughout geological time, including a major global
J. E. Cohen, C. Small, A. Mellinger, J. Gallup and J. Sachs, Estimates of coastal populations,
Science, 1997, 278, 1211—1212.
R. Gommes, J. du Guerny, F. Nachtergaele and R. Brinkman, Potential Impacts of Sea-Level
Rise on Populations and Agriculture. SD-Dimensions Special, FAO, Rome, 1998,
http://www.fao.org/sd/eidirect/EIre0045.htm.
W. Tobler, U. Deichmann, J. Gottsegen and K. Malloy, K., World population in a grid of spherical
quadrilaterals. Int. J. Population Geogr., 1997, 3, 203—225 (see also http://sedac.ciesin.org/plue/gpw).
R. McLean, A. Tsyban, V. Burkett, J. O. Codignotto, D. L. Forbes, N. Mimura, R. J. Beamish and
V. Ittekkot, Coastal zone and marine ecosystems, in J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary,
D. J. Dokken and K. S. White (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001, pp. 343—380.
L. Bijlsma, C. N. Ehler, R. J. T. Klein, S. M. Kulshrestha, R. F. McLean, N. Mimura, R. J. Nicholls,
L. A. Nurse, H. Pe´ rez Nieto, E. Z. Stakhiv, R. K. Turner and R. A. Warrick, Coastal zones and
small islands, in R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera and R. H. Moss (eds.), Climate Change 1995 —
Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 1996, pp. 289—324.
R. J. Nicholls
84
50
100
0
2 0 0
4 0 0
Distance from the coast /km
% Global Population
Figure 1 Population versus
distance from the coast
estimated for 1994 based
on analysis of the Gridded
Population of the World
Dataset, Version 1
coastal areas which will interact adversely with these other trends.
This article examines the likely implications of climate change for coastal areas
in the 21st century, with a main emphasis on sea-level rise, and how we can
systematically analyse the potential impacts and response options. First,
sea-level rise and climate change in coastal areas are considered to indicate the
likely magnitude of change. Second, impact and vulnerability analyses are
considered, including some examples of potential impacts. Third, possible
responses are considered, with an emphasis on adaptation to sea-level rise and
climate change. Last, the future needs to improve impact and vulnerability
assessment are considered.
2 Sea-level Rise and Climate Change in Coastal Areas
Sea-level Rise
Sea levels have fluctuated throughout geological time, including a major global
J. E. Cohen, C. Small, A. Mellinger, J. Gallup and J. Sachs, Estimates of coastal populations,
Science, 1997, 278, 1211—1212.
R. Gommes, J. du Guerny, F. Nachtergaele and R. Brinkman, Potential Impacts of Sea-Level
Rise on Populations and Agriculture. SD-Dimensions Special, FAO, Rome, 1998,
http://www.fao.org/sd/eidirect/EIre0045.htm.
W. Tobler, U. Deichmann, J. Gottsegen and K. Malloy, K., World population in a grid of spherical
quadrilaterals. Int. J. Population Geogr., 1997, 3, 203—225 (see also http://sedac.ciesin.org/plue/gpw).
R. McLean, A. Tsyban, V. Burkett, J. O. Codignotto, D. L. Forbes, N. Mimura, R. J. Beamish and
V. Ittekkot, Coastal zone and marine ecosystems, in J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary,
D. J. Dokken and K. S. White (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001, pp. 343—380.
L. Bijlsma, C. N. Ehler, R. J. T. Klein, S. M. Kulshrestha, R. F. McLean, N. Mimura, R. J. Nicholls,
L. A. Nurse, H. Pe´ rez Nieto, E. Z. Stakhiv, R. K. Turner and R. A. Warrick, Coastal zones and
small islands, in R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera and R. H. Moss (eds.), Climate Change 1995 —
Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 1996, pp. 289—324.
R. J. Nicholls
84