No CFC
restrictions
1250
750
500
250
1500
1975
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
1950
U.S. baseline rate =
1100 cases/million/year
1000
Now
Year
100
Peak excess =
10% in 2050
Excess cases of skin cancer per
million per year
Montreal
Protocol
Copenhagen
Amendments (’92)
Figure 2 Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna Convention achievements (adapted from ref. 53)
M. J. Ahern and A. J. McMichael
148