(IIASA). Outputs from simulations by the BLS provided information on
food production, food prices and the number of people at risk of hunger.
Climate Change Scenarios
Scenarios of climate change were developed to estimate the effect on yields and
food supply. The range of scenarios used aimed to capture the range of possible
effects and set limits on the associated uncertainty. The scenarios for this study
were created by changing the observed data on current climate (1951—80)
according to doubled CO
simulations of three general circulation models
(GCMs). The GCMs used were those from the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (GISS), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the
United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO).
Crop Models and Yield Simulations
Crop models. The IBSNAT crop models were used to estimate how climate
change and increasing levels of carbon dioxide may alter yields of work crops at
112 sites in 18 countries representing both major production areas and
vulnerable regions at low, mid and high latitudes. The IBSNAT models employ
simplified functions to predict the growth of crops as influenced by the major
factors that affect yields, e.g. genetics, climate (daily solar radiation, maximum
and minimum temperatures and precipitation), soils and management practices.
Models used were for wheat, maize, paddy and upland rice and
soybean.
G. Fischer, K. Frohberg, M. A. Keyzer and K. S. Parikh, Linked National Models: A Tool for
International Food Policy Analysis, Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1988.
J. Hansen, G. Russell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy and L. Travis, Efficient
three-dimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II, Monthly Weather Rev., 1983,
111, 609—662.
J. Hansen, I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, G. Russell, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy and P. Stone, Global
climate changes as forecast by the GISS 3-D model, J. Geophys. Res., 1988, 93, 9341—9364.
S. Manabe and R. T. Wetherald, Large-scale changes in soil wetness induced by an increase in
CO
, J. Atmos. Sci., 1987, 44, 1211—1235.
C. A. Wilson and J. F. B. Mitchell, A doubled CO
climate sensitivity experiment with a global
climate model including a simple ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 1987, 92 (13), 315—343.
C. Rosenzweig and A. Iglesias, Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop
Modeling Study, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 1994.
J. T. Ritchie and S. Otter, Description and performance of CERES-Wheat: A user-oriented wheat
yield model, in W. O. Willis (ed.), ARS Wheat Yield Project, Department of Agriculture,
Agricultural Research Service, Washington, DC, ARS-38, 1985.
D. Godwin, J. T. Ritchie, I. J. Singh and L. Hunt, A User’s Guide to CERES-Wheat — V2.10, Muscle
Shoals: International Fertilizer Development Center, 1989.
C. A. Jones and J. R. Kiniry, CERES-Maize: A Simulation Model of Maize Growth and
Development, Texas A&M Press, College Station, 1986.
J. T. Ritchie, U. Singh, D. Godwin and L. Hunt, A User’s Guide to CERES-Maize—V2.10, Muscle
Shoals: International Fertilizer Development Center, 1989.
D. Godwin, U. Singh, J. T. Ritchie and E. C. Alocilja, A User’s Guide to CERES-Rice, Muscle
Shoals: International Fertilizer Development Center, 1993.
J. W. Jones, K. J. Boote, G. Hoogenboom, S. S. Jagtap and G. G. Wilkerson, SOYGRO V5.42:
Soybean Crop Growth Simulation Model Users’ Guide, Department of Agricultural Engineering
and Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville, 1989.
Climate Change, Global Food Supply and Risk of Hunger
111
food production, food prices and the number of people at risk of hunger.
Climate Change Scenarios
Scenarios of climate change were developed to estimate the effect on yields and
food supply. The range of scenarios used aimed to capture the range of possible
effects and set limits on the associated uncertainty. The scenarios for this study
were created by changing the observed data on current climate (1951—80)
according to doubled CO
simulations of three general circulation models
(GCMs). The GCMs used were those from the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (GISS), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the
United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO).
Crop Models and Yield Simulations
Crop models. The IBSNAT crop models were used to estimate how climate
change and increasing levels of carbon dioxide may alter yields of work crops at
112 sites in 18 countries representing both major production areas and
vulnerable regions at low, mid and high latitudes. The IBSNAT models employ
simplified functions to predict the growth of crops as influenced by the major
factors that affect yields, e.g. genetics, climate (daily solar radiation, maximum
and minimum temperatures and precipitation), soils and management practices.
Models used were for wheat, maize, paddy and upland rice and
soybean.
G. Fischer, K. Frohberg, M. A. Keyzer and K. S. Parikh, Linked National Models: A Tool for
International Food Policy Analysis, Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1988.
J. Hansen, G. Russell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy and L. Travis, Efficient
three-dimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II, Monthly Weather Rev., 1983,
111, 609—662.
J. Hansen, I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, G. Russell, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy and P. Stone, Global
climate changes as forecast by the GISS 3-D model, J. Geophys. Res., 1988, 93, 9341—9364.
S. Manabe and R. T. Wetherald, Large-scale changes in soil wetness induced by an increase in
CO
, J. Atmos. Sci., 1987, 44, 1211—1235.
C. A. Wilson and J. F. B. Mitchell, A doubled CO
climate sensitivity experiment with a global
climate model including a simple ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 1987, 92 (13), 315—343.
C. Rosenzweig and A. Iglesias, Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop
Modeling Study, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 1994.
J. T. Ritchie and S. Otter, Description and performance of CERES-Wheat: A user-oriented wheat
yield model, in W. O. Willis (ed.), ARS Wheat Yield Project, Department of Agriculture,
Agricultural Research Service, Washington, DC, ARS-38, 1985.
D. Godwin, J. T. Ritchie, I. J. Singh and L. Hunt, A User’s Guide to CERES-Wheat — V2.10, Muscle
Shoals: International Fertilizer Development Center, 1989.
C. A. Jones and J. R. Kiniry, CERES-Maize: A Simulation Model of Maize Growth and
Development, Texas A&M Press, College Station, 1986.
J. T. Ritchie, U. Singh, D. Godwin and L. Hunt, A User’s Guide to CERES-Maize—V2.10, Muscle
Shoals: International Fertilizer Development Center, 1989.
D. Godwin, U. Singh, J. T. Ritchie and E. C. Alocilja, A User’s Guide to CERES-Rice, Muscle
Shoals: International Fertilizer Development Center, 1993.
J. W. Jones, K. J. Boote, G. Hoogenboom, S. S. Jagtap and G. G. Wilkerson, SOYGRO V5.42:
Soybean Crop Growth Simulation Model Users’ Guide, Department of Agricultural Engineering
and Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville, 1989.
Climate Change, Global Food Supply and Risk of Hunger
111