POTENTIAL IMPACTS
CLIMATE CHANGE
INITIAL IMPACTS
RESIDUAL IMPACTS
REACTIVE ADAPTATION
ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION
Figure 8 Framework for
impact and adaptation
assessment (adapted from
Klein)
multiple policy cycles, as well as various constraints on approaches to adaptation
due to broader policy and development goals. Green et al. argue along
consistent lines that an adaptive management approach to climate change is
clearly appropriate given the entire climate and other uncertainties (see also
National Research Council). An explicit ‘learning by doing’ approach accepts
uncertainty and sees any intervention in the environment as an educated
experiment and an opportunity to learn via careful monitoring and evaluation. It
also recognizes that the criteria for assessing the suitability of an adaptation
approach are likely to evolve due to improving scientific and technical knowledge
and/or changing societal values.
With a few exceptions, climate change will largely exacerbate existing pressures
and problems, so there are important synergies in considering adaptation to
climate change in the context of existing problems. In some cases, the focus of
sea-level rise and climate change may help identify ‘win-win’ situations that are
worthy of implementation without any climate change. Also, adaptation
measures are more likely to be implemented if they offer immediate benefits in
reducing impacts of short-term climate variability as well as long-term climate
change.
Last, broader measures in terms of enhancing adaptive capacity and creating
an environment where adaptation can more easily occur are also vital (cf. Smit et
al.). In many countries there is limited capacity to address today’s coastal
problems, let alone consider tomorrow’s problems, including sea-level rise.
Therefore, such capacity building should include developing coastal management,
as already widely recommended.
C. Green, R. J. Nicholls, C. Johnson, S. Shackley and J. W. Handmer, Climate Change Adaptation:
A Framework for Analysis and Decision-making in the Face of Risk and Uncertainty, Report No. 28,
A report produced for NCRAOA as part of Environment Agency R&D project E2-036,
Environment Agency, 2000, Bristol, 87 pp.
National Research Council, Science, Policy and the Coast: Improving Decisionmaking, National
Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1995, 85 pp.
R. A. Pielke, Rethinking the role of adaptation in climate policy, Global Environ. Change, 1998, 8,
159—170.
R. J. T. Klein, Adaptation to climate change: what is optimal and appropriate?, Clim. Change,
2001, in press.
Rising Sea Levels: Potential Impacts and Responses
103
CLIMATE CHANGE
INITIAL IMPACTS
RESIDUAL IMPACTS
REACTIVE ADAPTATION
ANTICIPATORY ADAPTATION
Figure 8 Framework for
impact and adaptation
assessment (adapted from
Klein)
multiple policy cycles, as well as various constraints on approaches to adaptation
due to broader policy and development goals. Green et al. argue along
consistent lines that an adaptive management approach to climate change is
clearly appropriate given the entire climate and other uncertainties (see also
National Research Council). An explicit ‘learning by doing’ approach accepts
uncertainty and sees any intervention in the environment as an educated
experiment and an opportunity to learn via careful monitoring and evaluation. It
also recognizes that the criteria for assessing the suitability of an adaptation
approach are likely to evolve due to improving scientific and technical knowledge
and/or changing societal values.
With a few exceptions, climate change will largely exacerbate existing pressures
and problems, so there are important synergies in considering adaptation to
climate change in the context of existing problems. In some cases, the focus of
sea-level rise and climate change may help identify ‘win-win’ situations that are
worthy of implementation without any climate change. Also, adaptation
measures are more likely to be implemented if they offer immediate benefits in
reducing impacts of short-term climate variability as well as long-term climate
change.
Last, broader measures in terms of enhancing adaptive capacity and creating
an environment where adaptation can more easily occur are also vital (cf. Smit et
al.). In many countries there is limited capacity to address today’s coastal
problems, let alone consider tomorrow’s problems, including sea-level rise.
Therefore, such capacity building should include developing coastal management,
as already widely recommended.
C. Green, R. J. Nicholls, C. Johnson, S. Shackley and J. W. Handmer, Climate Change Adaptation:
A Framework for Analysis and Decision-making in the Face of Risk and Uncertainty, Report No. 28,
A report produced for NCRAOA as part of Environment Agency R&D project E2-036,
Environment Agency, 2000, Bristol, 87 pp.
National Research Council, Science, Policy and the Coast: Improving Decisionmaking, National
Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1995, 85 pp.
R. A. Pielke, Rethinking the role of adaptation in climate policy, Global Environ. Change, 1998, 8,
159—170.
R. J. T. Klein, Adaptation to climate change: what is optimal and appropriate?, Clim. Change,
2001, in press.
Rising Sea Levels: Potential Impacts and Responses
103