causing ten times the erosion predicted by the Bruun Rule in the vicinity of inlets.
Bird estimated that 70% of the world’s sandy beaches are already eroding.
Bird offered several alternative explanations, including widespread sediment
starvation and global sea-level rise. Whatever the present cause, it is widely
agreed that an acceleration in sea-level rise will promote erosion. New models
describing long-term coastal behaviour offer promise to improve prediction of
future coastal evolution, integrating all the forces shaping the coast including
sea-level rise.
Socio-Economic Impacts of Sea-level Rise
The range of natural-system effects of sea-level rise in Table 2 have a wide range of
potential socio-economic impacts, reflecting the diverse uses of the coastal
zone. The IPCC Common Methodology defined three types of impacts:
E values at risk due to instantaneous changes such as increased flood frequency
and depth, and storm damage for people, land and infrastructure;
E values at loss due to longer-term effects such as land loss and abandonment
in response to erosion and inundation, and ecosystem loss. This could
include direct loss of economic, ecological, cultural and subsistence values
through loss of land, infrastructure, water resources and coastal habitats;
E values at change where the consequences of sea-level rise are uncertain due to
incomplete knowledge and/or there may be both positive and negative
effects, such as some hydrological changes. Further analysis will lead to
values at change being reclassified to the other two categories, or no impacts.
Table 3 lists the most important socio-economic sectors in coastal zones, and
indicates which natural system effects are expected to cause direct socio-economic
impacts, including the cases where it is uncertain. Indirect impacts of sea-level rise
are not shown as they are more difficult to analyse, but they have the potential to
be important in many sectors, such as human health. Examples of possible
triggers of indirect health impacts include the nutritional impacts of loss of
agricultural production in coastal areas, the release of toxic materials from
abandoned land fills during storms, and possible effects due to waterlogging
E. C. F. Bird, Coastline Changes: A Global Review, John Wiley, Chichester, 1985, 219 pp.
A. W. Niedoroda, C. W. Reed, M. J. F. Stive and P. Cowell, P., Numerical simulations of
coastal-tract morphodynamics, Proceedings of Coastal Dynamics 2001, ASCE, New York, 2001,
pp. 403—412.
M. J. F. Stive, S. J. C. Aarninkoff, L. Hamm, H. Hanson, M. Larson, K. Wijnberg, R. J. Nicholls and
M. Capobianco, Variability of shore and shoreline evolution, Coastal Eng., accepted.
A. McMichael, A. Githeko, R. Akhtar, R. Carcavallo, D. Gubler, A. Haines, S. Kovats, P. Martens,
J. Patz and A. Sasaki, Human health, in J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken
and K. S. White (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 2001, pp. 451—485.
T. J. Flynn, S. G. Walesh, J. G. Titus and M. C. Barth, Implications of sea level rise for hazardous
waste sites in coastal floodplains, in M. C. Barth and J. G. Titus (eds.), Greenhouse Effect and Sea
Level Rise: A Challenge for this Generation, Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1984, pp. 271—294.
J. E. Neumann, G. Yohe, R. J. Nicholls and M. Manion, Sea Level Rise and Global Climate Change:
A Review of Impacts to US Coastal Resources. Climate Change Briefing Paper of the Pew
Foundation, Washington DC, 2000, 38 pp.
R. J. Nicholls
96
Bird estimated that 70% of the world’s sandy beaches are already eroding.
Bird offered several alternative explanations, including widespread sediment
starvation and global sea-level rise. Whatever the present cause, it is widely
agreed that an acceleration in sea-level rise will promote erosion. New models
describing long-term coastal behaviour offer promise to improve prediction of
future coastal evolution, integrating all the forces shaping the coast including
sea-level rise.
Socio-Economic Impacts of Sea-level Rise
The range of natural-system effects of sea-level rise in Table 2 have a wide range of
potential socio-economic impacts, reflecting the diverse uses of the coastal
zone. The IPCC Common Methodology defined three types of impacts:
E values at risk due to instantaneous changes such as increased flood frequency
and depth, and storm damage for people, land and infrastructure;
E values at loss due to longer-term effects such as land loss and abandonment
in response to erosion and inundation, and ecosystem loss. This could
include direct loss of economic, ecological, cultural and subsistence values
through loss of land, infrastructure, water resources and coastal habitats;
E values at change where the consequences of sea-level rise are uncertain due to
incomplete knowledge and/or there may be both positive and negative
effects, such as some hydrological changes. Further analysis will lead to
values at change being reclassified to the other two categories, or no impacts.
Table 3 lists the most important socio-economic sectors in coastal zones, and
indicates which natural system effects are expected to cause direct socio-economic
impacts, including the cases where it is uncertain. Indirect impacts of sea-level rise
are not shown as they are more difficult to analyse, but they have the potential to
be important in many sectors, such as human health. Examples of possible
triggers of indirect health impacts include the nutritional impacts of loss of
agricultural production in coastal areas, the release of toxic materials from
abandoned land fills during storms, and possible effects due to waterlogging
E. C. F. Bird, Coastline Changes: A Global Review, John Wiley, Chichester, 1985, 219 pp.
A. W. Niedoroda, C. W. Reed, M. J. F. Stive and P. Cowell, P., Numerical simulations of
coastal-tract morphodynamics, Proceedings of Coastal Dynamics 2001, ASCE, New York, 2001,
pp. 403—412.
M. J. F. Stive, S. J. C. Aarninkoff, L. Hamm, H. Hanson, M. Larson, K. Wijnberg, R. J. Nicholls and
M. Capobianco, Variability of shore and shoreline evolution, Coastal Eng., accepted.
A. McMichael, A. Githeko, R. Akhtar, R. Carcavallo, D. Gubler, A. Haines, S. Kovats, P. Martens,
J. Patz and A. Sasaki, Human health, in J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken
and K. S. White (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 2001, pp. 451—485.
T. J. Flynn, S. G. Walesh, J. G. Titus and M. C. Barth, Implications of sea level rise for hazardous
waste sites in coastal floodplains, in M. C. Barth and J. G. Titus (eds.), Greenhouse Effect and Sea
Level Rise: A Challenge for this Generation, Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1984, pp. 271—294.
J. E. Neumann, G. Yohe, R. J. Nicholls and M. Manion, Sea Level Rise and Global Climate Change:
A Review of Impacts to US Coastal Resources. Climate Change Briefing Paper of the Pew
Foundation, Washington DC, 2000, 38 pp.
R. J. Nicholls
96